Oz Politics Blog

Morgan has released its polling results for last weekend. The poll of 1055 voters predicted a two-party preferred vote of 61 per cent for Labor and 39 per cent for the Coalition. This is essentially unchanged on the previous week.

The primary vote predictions were 34 per cent for the Coalition and 51.5 per cent for Labor.

Yes, it is another landslide-win-for-Labor poll.

Increasingly, the Morgan series is suggesting the public expects Kevin Rudd to win the next election (or at least the trend appears to be in that direction).

Perhaps more interesting was the wider qualitative polling:

Supporters of the Liberal Party cite its economic management - and Labor’s ineptitude - as a major reason for their preference:

“I don’t trust the Labor Party — they bankrupt everything they touch.”
 “Australia is doing so well at the moment with Liberal. Policies and economic situation is good.”
“Liberals will protect my beliefs and investments in retirement.  Labor will destroy investment.”
“I don’t trust Labor’s fiscal management.  Labor have only reverse policies, not their own.”
“I own my own business — the economy has been good the last 10 years or so. I agree with Liberal’s WorkChoices.”
“I have far more trust in the Coalition regarding economic management. The ALP has too many ties with the unions.”
“I like Howard’s track-record but I’m swinging at the moment.  Kevin Rudd and his crew are putting forward a good case but they are not quite there on the economy and health.”

Another major attraction for Liberal supporters is John Howard’s experience and leadership:

“John Howard has done a very good job.”
“I like John Howard — he is the most honest politician.”
“I think John Howard’s not too bad; let him finish what he’s doing.”
“Howard’s been doing a good job.  I don’t have any major complaints about how he’s running the country.”
“I like Howard’s policies; he is a good leader.”
“The Liberal Party is hard-working.  John Howard is an honest man.”
“I like Howard, he has done a good job and I don’t like the others.”

The unpopularity of Prime Minister John Howard is continuing to sway voters toward the ALP:

“I don’t like John Howard — he just sucks up to George Bush.”
“In the last few years, John Howard has told a lot of lies.”
“I’m voting ALP just to get John Howard out of Canberra.”
“John Howard and his Government will not do anything about climate change — they have more powerful interests pushing them.”
“There has been no democracy with John Howard in charge; our civil liberties have been eroded.”
“I want to get rid of John Howard.”

The Coalition Government’s unpopular industrial relations laws continue to strengthen the Labor Party’s support base:

“I have a great concern over the new IR laws — there is now a huge gap between the haves and the have-nots.”
“People are not safe against the WorkChoices policies of the Liberals.”
“The award (pay) issues that Howard has introduced are unfair to working class people.”
“The ALP has more of a social conscience with regards to IR.”
“John Howard’s WorkChoices show that he is not for the ordinary Australian.”

A number of ALP supporters are excited by the qualities that Kevin Rudd exhibits:

“I like Rudd at the moment — he impresses me.  Howard needs to retire.  I don’t like the workplace health reforms that he has brought in.”
“I don’t want Howard.  Kevin Rudd is more human and approachable.”
“I like Kevin Rudd. I don’t like John or what he’s done.  It would be good to see someone new in.”
“Rudd is a breath of fresh air.”

The release was unexpected, as Morgan usually aggregates its polling over two weekends before a release. Morgan has released single weekend polling before, but typically when is points to significant discontinuity with previous polling. This release appears to be an exception. The price for Morgan with weekly releases is the increased error margin.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.