Betting market update
2007 Federal Election
The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 52.0 per cent. It was 51.7 per cent on Monday.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $1.77 | $1.95 | 52.4% |
| IASBet | $1.84 | $1.96 | 51.6% |
| SportingBet | $1.80 | $1.95 | 52.0% |
| SportsBet | $1.80 | $1.90 | 51.4% |
| SportsAcumen | $1.75 | $1.95 | 52.7% |
Bennelong
Perhaps the most interesting odds have been Sportingbet’s on who will win the seat of Bennelong. In just under two weeks, Maxine McKew has been dropped by the punters.
Centrebet also has a book on Bennelong. However, rather than focus on the parties, it offers odds on the players: $1.18 for Howard, $4.50 for McKew and $14.00 for anyone else. Centrebet’s odds on anyone else are interesting, as they allow for the prospect of Howard or McKew withdrawing from the race.
NSW Election
The odds for the NSW Election on 24 March have not moved significantly over the campaign period. According to Centrebet, Labor has an 82 per cent probability of taking Government.
Centrebet has Labor the favourite in Wollondilly, Tweed, Port Stephens, Penrith, Murray-Darling (just), Monaro, Kiama, Gosford, Drummoyne, Camden and Balmain. The Coalition is the favourite in Terrigal, Tamworth (just), Pittwater and Bega. And an independent is the favourite in Manly (just) and Dubbo.
SportingBet is running a book on how many seats labor will win in the NSW Legislative Assembly. The favourite range is 45-50 seats, closely followed by 50-55 seats.
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