Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Australian contained the latest Newspoll results. The headline prediction: Labor would have won 54 per cent of the national two party preferred vote were an election held last weekend. The Australian noted this was a softening from 56 per cent the previous fortnight. However, I suspect it was just the usual noise — random variation — with any poll series, and it would be premature to declare that Rudd is beginning to slump.

In the primaries, Labor got 46 per cent (down one on the previous fortnight) and the Coalition got 41 per cent (up three). If the Coalition primary vote prediction is sustained over subsequent polls — remembering that today’s Coalition result may also be the usual noise associated with the random perturbations of opinion polling — it would give the government some comfort.

The big change is in the attitudinal polling. Newspoll has Rudd ten points in front of Howard as preferred prime minister. This was reported as a Newspoll record.

On the satisfaction front, net satisfaction with Rudd continued to improve, while it declined marginally for Howard.

Newspoll also produced polling in respect of the Iraq war. While interesting, I am not convinced that the Iraq war will be a significant factor in the 2007 election. My underlying assumption is that the average voter is driven by the issues that affect him or her personally. These are usually the hip pocket issues: unemployment rate, interest rates, job security, etc. The Vietnam experience suggests that wars only become significant electoral issues when the nation’s sons and daughters are dying in large numbers. Climate change and water security are bigger issues than Iraq because, through water restrictions, they impact on suburban gardens — or more specifically, the view out the back window or the six-and-out cricket wicket the kids play on.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Elsewhere: the Poll Bludger speculates whether the latest Morgan polling of the Prime Minister’s seat could see a Coalition win in 2007 and a Howard loss in Bennelong. The comments make interesting reading. (Also in the Oz).

I am currently working on an election tipping competition that will feature shortly on the blog. For lower house elections, you will be able to test your psephological skills in picking the party that will form government and the number of seats they will win. For upper house elections, you will be able to identify how many seats each of the major party groupings will win in the election. The winner will be the first person in with the closest guess. I will only allow one pick per punter, but you will be able to change your pick over time.

I expect the first competitions will be:

• NSW Legislative Assembly — March 24
• NSW Legislative Council — March 24
• Commonwealth of Australian House of Representatives — late 2007
• Commonwealth of Australia Senate — late 2007

Unfortunately, there will be no prizes beyond the glory of being the best election picker on the internet.

Anyway, as I finalise development of this new feature I am asking you, my dear readers, if there are any specific features you would like to see in an election tipping competition.

Yesterday morning, SportsBet had Labor ahead of the Coalition. This morning three bookmakers had Labor ahead. The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 49.5 per cent. It was 50.6 per cent yesterday.

While the margin is small, it looks like Kevin Rudd is now the favourite to win the 2007 Federal election. I suspect this latest shift in the betting market is more a response to Howard’s less polished than usual performance over the past Parliamentary fortnight, than a response to the opinion polls.

Don’t forget that in probability terms a betting market that has Howard ahead 55-45 is not all that different to a betting market that has Howard and Rudd each on 50-50. For much of 2006, the betting market was saying that Beazley would have won 9 elections out of 20 (were the same election repeated 20 times). The betting market is now saying that Rudd would win 10 elections out 20.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Update: You might want to check out Andrew Leigh v Mumble on betting markets v opinion polls.

Last week, SportingBet was providing even odds for a Labor and Coalition win at the 2007 Federal election. This week, SportsBet has Labor ahead of the Coalition.The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 50.6 per cent. It was 51.9 per cent on 6 February 2007.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.80 and for a Labor win it would pay $1.90. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 51.4 per cent (unchanged)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.87 and for a Labor win it would pay $1.97. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 50.8 per cent (was 52.6 per cent)
• SportingBet is paying $1.85 for a Coalition win and $1.95 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 51.3 per cent (was 50.0 per cent)
• SportsBet is paying $1.95 for a Coalition win and $1.80 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 48.0 per cent (was 53.1 per cent)
• For a Coalition win SportsAcumen would pay $1.80 and for a Labor win it would pay $1.92. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 51.6 per cent (was 52.4 per cent)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

ACNielsen was the last pollster out of the blocks with a post-Rudd-ascension poll (Age SMH). The story is much the same as elsewhere. According to ACNielsen, were an election held last Thursday to Saturday, the Coalition would have won 42 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote, and Labor 58 per cent — a landslide Labor win. The prediction was based on a poll of 1412 voters.

The primary vote predictions echo the same story: Labor is on 46, the Coalition on 36 and the Greens on 11 per cent. While ACNielsen has the Greens much higher than the other pollsters, they agree that Rudd is performing better than Beazley when it comes to attracting primary votes to Labor. Rudd is well above the 40 per cent rule of thumb for a Labor win.

In the attitudinal polling, Rudd has apparently achieved a record 65 per cent approval rating for an Opposition Leader. He has also outperformed John Howard as preferred prime minister.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.