NSW Election (Part II)
Today’s papers carry two polls. Both are disastrous for Team Debnam and the NSW Coalition parties.
Newspoll for January-February 2007 has Labor state-wide predicted two party preferred share at 59 per cent to the Coalition’s 41 per cent.
ACNielsen’s poll from last weekend has a similar result: 57 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for the Coalition.
A couple of observations: First NSW has optional preferential voting. NSW voters must put 1 in the box of the preferred candidate. They do not need to number any further squares for their vote to be valid. If they do number further squares, and their preferred candidate is excluded from the count, their vote will be transferred to their second preferred candidate, and so on, as far as they have numbered the ballot paper. With both of the major parties on the nose, primary votes may be more important in determining the outcome, rather than preferences. It is likely that a sizable number of voters will not preference either if the major parties. Also possible, the number of independents and minor party candidates may increase.
Second, this election may become another example of poorly performing opposition leaders helping lame duck governments secure an increased majority re-election. It is something I call the Hewson effect, after Keating’s 1993 victory. Although to be fair, it could be called the Doc Evatt effect. While ‘lame duck’ may be too severe a description for the Howard Government in 2004, the Mark Latham effect increased the Coalition’s vote share at that election.
So what does this mean for my tipping? I am becoming the man who changed his tips more than he changed his underwear. I have upped the seat count to 55. While I am tempted to up it further, I suspect the optional preferential voting system will see more independents and minor parties, rather than more Labor members.