Oz Politics Blog

When the major parties ‘leak’ private polling that is ostensibly damaging to their cause, you always need to wonder about the hidden agenda. In this case, the Australian has Coalition polling.

CONFIDENTIAL private polling by the Coalition parties reveals a number of Government MPs are vulnerable, with Labor making good headway in key marginal seats.

The Australian has learned that Labor’s vote has strengthened in a number of electorates along the eastern seaboard and in Tasmania.

The Nationals’ vote is particularly soft in NSW and Queensland as voters continue to take a liking to Kevin Rudd.

The Liberal vote is also said to be softer in crucial marginal seats such as Eden-Monaro in southern NSW and Tasmania’s Bass and Braddon - both won by the Coalition in 2004.

Some senior Coalition figures say the parties’ private polling reflects Newspoll, which has Labor well ahead of the Government after preferences, 54 to 46 per cent.

If we were to assume that Labor would get a two-party preferred vote of 54 per cent at the next Federal election (a plausible change of government figure as the next graph shows — Hawke and Howard were close to this mark for their first terms), it would roughly equate to a 7 per cent swing on the Mackerras pendulum. With a uniform swing of this magnitude, Labor should expect to increase its representation from 60 seats to around 90 seats in the House of Representatives. It would be a crushing defeat for the Howard Government, and with a four per cent margin in the seat of Bennelong, a personal defeat for the Prime Minister as well.

The question remains: why ‘leak’ the polling to the Australian? Was it a call to arms for the party faithful? Was it a wake-up call to Coalition parliamentarians? Was it to provide cover for the ferocity with which the Coalition plans to attack Rudd in the coming weeks?