Oz Politics Blog

Morgan’s latest prediction had Labor receiving 57 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote. The Coalition received 43 per cent.

Update 24 February: On the following graph, we can speculate that a trend is emerging: Rudd’s lead is being whittled away bit by bit. Of course it is highly unlikely such a decline would continue indefinitely at the current rate (leaving Howard in the lead from around November, and well positioned for an early December election). If the declines continues until May, it will be back at the level Beazley sustained for much of last year. I suspect decline beyond this Beazley threshold would be a much more difficult challenge for the government.

The primary vote predictions were 38 per cent for the Coalition, 48 per cent for Labor, and 7 per cent for the Greens.

This is the second Morgan poll in a row where more voters thought Labor rather than the Coalition would win the next Federal election.

Morgan also included some interesting anecdotal reporting:

Coalition Party supporters cited economic management as an important issue: “The interest rates under Labor last time we huge”, “The Liberals are much better economic managers — it’s not all about who can spruik the most about climate change”, “The Liberals have moderate policies. The economy is the best it has ever been, with low unemployment” and “I consider the country to be in a good financial position — we only have 4.5% unemployment so why would we want to change?”

Prime Minister John Howard remains very popular among Coalition supporters: “I like John Howard — he comes across as very fair, he makes the tough decisions and sticks with them”, “I think John Howard has done a fantastic job. He is a quiet achiever — he’s not about image, he just does his job”, “I feel more secure with John Howard’s experience” and “John Howard is the right man for this country.”

Supporters of the ALP cited dissatisfaction with Prime Minister John Howard: “I’ve had enough of John Howard, he is a liar”, “I am anti-nuclear, anti-war and therefore anti-Howard”, “I think John Howard has lost the plot — I am very dissatisfied with the IR laws”, “I am against John Howard’s IR laws, they take too much out of the family-man’s pocket and therefore devalue the family unit” and “I have a profound dissatisfaction with John Howard and his Government — we need to become a more compassionate community.”

Many other electors cited the performance of Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has convinced them to support the ALP: “I think Kevin Rudd is an honest man”, “I like Kevin Rudd’s industrial relations policies — he is more supportive of the family”, “I like Rudd, I believe he has leadership potential”, “Kevin Rudd seems like he is on the ball”, “The ALP has a good new leader — I like Kevin Rudd, he seems like a nice person and seems human” and “Kevin Rudd is likely to do a better job than John Howard.”

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Update: Michael Costello has a good op. ed. in this morning’s Oz on Rudd’s honeymoon in the polls.