Betting market update
The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 49.1 per cent. It was 49.5 per cent last Thursday.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $1.90 | $1.80 | 48.6% |
| IASBet | $2.00 | $1.80 | 47.4% |
| SportingBet | $1.85 | $1.95 | 51.3% |
| SportsBet | $1.95 | $1.80 | 48.0% |
| SportsAcumen | $1.85 | $1.85 | 50.0% |
Don’t forget that in probability terms a betting market that has Howard ahead 55-45 is not all that different to a betting market that has Howard and Rudd each on 50-50. For much of 2006, the betting market was saying that Beazley would have won 9 elections out of 20 (were the same election repeated 20 times). The betting market is now saying that Rudd would win 10 elections out 20.
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