Newspoll: 54 to 46 in Labor’s favour
Today’s Australian contained the latest Newspoll results. The headline prediction: Labor would have won 54 per cent of the national two party preferred vote were an election held last weekend. The Australian noted this was a softening from 56 per cent the previous fortnight. However, I suspect it was just the usual noise — random variation — with any poll series, and it would be premature to declare that Rudd is beginning to slump.
In the primaries, Labor got 46 per cent (down one on the previous fortnight) and the Coalition got 41 per cent (up three). If the Coalition primary vote prediction is sustained over subsequent polls — remembering that today’s Coalition result may also be the usual noise associated with the random perturbations of opinion polling — it would give the government some comfort.
The big change is in the attitudinal polling. Newspoll has Rudd ten points in front of Howard as preferred prime minister. This was reported as a Newspoll record.
On the satisfaction front, net satisfaction with Rudd continued to improve, while it declined marginally for Howard.
Newspoll also produced polling in respect of the Iraq war. While interesting, I am not convinced that the Iraq war will be a significant factor in the 2007 election. My underlying assumption is that the average voter is driven by the issues that affect him or her personally. These are usually the hip pocket issues: unemployment rate, interest rates, job security, etc. The Vietnam experience suggests that wars only become significant electoral issues when the nation’s sons and daughters are dying in large numbers. Climate change and water security are bigger issues than Iraq because, through water restrictions, they impact on suburban gardens — or more specifically, the view out the back window or the six-and-out cricket wicket the kids play on.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Elsewhere: the Poll Bludger speculates whether the latest Morgan polling of the Prime Minister’s seat could see a Coalition win in 2007 and a Howard loss in Bennelong. The comments make interesting reading. (Also in the Oz).