Betting market update: Rudd ahead by a nose
Yesterday morning, SportsBet had Labor ahead of the Coalition. This morning three bookmakers had Labor ahead. The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 49.5 per cent. It was 50.6 per cent yesterday.
While the margin is small, it looks like Kevin Rudd is now the favourite to win the 2007 Federal election. I suspect this latest shift in the betting market is more a response to Howard’s less polished than usual performance over the past Parliamentary fortnight, than a response to the opinion polls.
Don’t forget that in probability terms a betting market that has Howard ahead 55-45 is not all that different to a betting market that has Howard and Rudd each on 50-50. For much of 2006, the betting market was saying that Beazley would have won 9 elections out of 20 (were the same election repeated 20 times). The betting market is now saying that Rudd would win 10 elections out 20.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $1.90 | $1.80 | 48.6% |
| IASBet | $1.96 | $1.84 | 48.4% |
| SportingBet | $1.85 | $1.95 | 51.3% |
| SportsBet | $1.95 | $1.80 | 48.0% |
| SportsAcumen | $1.82 | $1.90 | 51.1% |
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Update: You might want to check out Andrew Leigh v Mumble on betting markets v opinion polls.