The deja vu election hypothesis
Howard’s contention is that just as the Coalition won in 2001 and 2004, so it will win in 2007. It is a plausible argument. Early in 2001 and 2004, the Opposition was well ahead in the polls, but from around the fourth month of the year until the election, the Opposition slowly declined in the opinion polls, and ultimately lost the election. The trend can be seen clearest in the historically more reliable ACNielsen series, but it is also evident in the Newspoll series.
If Howard is correct, we can expect Labor’s polling to improve over the next four to eight weeks. Indeed, we may not be able to test the deja vu election hypothesis before May or June this year, by when the beginnings of a downward trend should have materialised. If it has not, we can kiss the hypothesis goodbye.
The plausibility of the deja vu election hypothesis makes it difficult calling this election in the first half of 2007. As the 2001 and 2004 elections demonstrated, the polling trends eight months out from an election are not necessarily a reliable indicator of the election outcome.