IR Poll

Bryan · Wednesday 3 January 2007 · 9:26 am

Today’s Australian (editorial and Steve Lewis article) contains undated polling from Newspoll in respect of an unspecified sample size. The ’special’ poll was focused on industrial relations. The reported findings were:

  • 34 per cent of voters thought the Work Choices changes good for the Australian economy, while 47 per cent thought they would be bad for the economy
  • 48 per cent of voters did not think that Work Choices’ would effect them personally, 14 per cent thought themselves better off, and 33 per cent thought they were worse off
  • 45 per cent of voters believe Work Choices will be bad for creating jobs and 33 per cent believe the changes will be good for creating jobs
  • 9 per cent of Coalition voters think Work Choices is “very bad” and just 6 per cent think it is “very bad” for them personally

The Australian argued that Work Choices should not have a significant effect in the 2007 election as most of its ill-effects are over-stated (half the population is unaffected) and the majority of those adversely affected are Labor voters. It is a view I have some sympathy for (as I blogged back in November). Mumble also thinks Work Choices is not a huge vote winner for Rudd. However, if just six per cent of Coalition voters think that Work Choices is “very bad” for them personally, and a further unspecified number consider it “bad”, this could well reduce the Coalition’s margin at the next election. Hip pocket nerve issues are often vote changers.

Nonetheless, it is difficult to take such poll reports too seriously. If it was recent polling from the new year’s eve weekend, I would have questions about the representativeness of the sample frame, and if it old polling you would have to ask why the Australian was serving up bubble and squeak. Without an indication of the sample frame and size, it could be a poll of just twenty people on a Bondi bus on Saturday night. Steve Lewis should take a note from Michelle Grattan in the Age. Grattan almost always reports the time of the poll, the sample size and the sample frame.

Update 7 January: Andrew Norton has a take on this poll.

Election 2007 ·