Betting market update
This report contains a small movement in Howard’s favour. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.4 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. (It was 57.1 per cent on 24 December 2006). After all the hullabaloo, the betting market has given Rudd pretty well the same probability of betting Howard as it gave Beazley immediately prior to the change of horses.
- For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.61 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.7 per cent (was 56.6 per cent)
- For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.68 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.1 per cent (unchanged)
- SportingBet is paying $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.30 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 59.4 per cent (unchanged)
- SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
A punter wrote to me this week and told me of another bookmaker offering odds on the 2007 election: SportsAcumen. I will start factoring this bookmaker’s odds into the charts shortly. Today’s odds at SportsAcumen are $1.60 for the Coalition and $2.25 for Labor. That equates to a 58.4 per cent probability of a Coalition win.
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