Oz Politics Blog

As I prepare to retire for the evening, Canberra is covered in smoke from a bush fire directly west of here. The smoke is so thick, it is being picked up by the weather radar at Captain’s Flat. That is not rain falling to the east of Tumut.

While this fire is no where near the scale of the Victorian fires, I hope we are not in for a repeat of the January 2003 fires.

Satellite tracking of bush fires can be found at www.sentinel.csiro.au and MODIS. The latest Canberra fire can be seen on this image from MODIS.

Rudd’s new Shadow Ministry has been announced.

It is a little difficult to tell from the announcement, but the Cabinet level Shadow Ministers appear to be:

• Kevin Rudd - Shadow Prime Minister
• Julia Gillard - Employment and Industrial Relations
• Stephen Conroy - Communications and Information Technology
• Tony Burke - Immigration, Integration and Citizenship
• Kim Carr - Industry, Innovation, Science and Research
• Simon Crean - Trade and Regional Development
• Chris Evans - National Development, Resources and Energy
• Joel Fitzgibbon - Defence
• Peter Garrett - Climate Change, Environment, Heritage and the Arts
• Jenny Macklin - Families, Community Services, Indigenous Affairs and Reconciliation
• Robert McClelland - Foreign Affairs
• Kerry O’Brien - Primary Industries, Fishery and Forestry
• Nicola Roxon - Health
• Stephen Smith - Education and Training
• Wayne Swan - Treasury
• Lindsay Tanner - Finance
• Kelvin Thomson - Attorney General (?)
• Tanya Plibersek - Human Services, Housing, Youth and Women (?)
• Nick Sherry - Superannuation and Intergenerational Finance, Banking and Financial Services (?)

This represents promotions for Garrett, Fitzgibbon and O’Brien. Anthony Albanese went from senior Environment Shadow, to the junior responsible for Water and Infrastructure. Penny Wong also appears to be out of the Shadow Cabinet, having lost Employment, but retaining Public Administration and Accountability, Corporate Governance and Responsibility. I suspect with Transport, Roads and Tourism (not to mention what many of his colleagues would call an embarrassing view on uranium mining) Martin Ferguson looks like he is also out of the Shadow Cabinet.

I said up front that it was difficult to tell from the announcement who is in the Shadow Cabinet. So I need to provide some caveats for the above list.

• The Attorney General was not in the previous Shadow Ministry. I have included the position this time because Rudd’s media statement painted Thomson’s appointment as a promotion (and he was in the previous Shadow Cabinet).
• Plibersek was in the previous Shadow Cabinet with much the same mix of portfolios as she has now. It is unclear from the announcement whether she will retain Cabinet level status, but if the size of Cabinet stays unchanged and the Attorney General is in, Plibersek may go.
• Nick Sherry was also in the previous Shadow Cabinet with much the same portfolio. But to my ear, the title sounds like a junior ministry.

For the six to seven months prior to the Rudd challenge, the betting market gave Labor around a 42 to 43 per cent chance of winning the 2007 Federal election. At the nadir of the Rudd v Beazley challenge, Labor’s chances had dipped to 38 per cent. Five days into Rudd’s reign, the betting market appears to have plateaued at 39 per cent. While there may be some further adjustment when Rudd announces his front bench, the three point fall from 42 to 39 per cent was not a kind assessment of the new leader.

The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 60.9 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. (It was 61.6 per cent on 5 December 2006, and it has been stable at 60.9 per cent since 6 December).

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.50 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.50. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 62.5 per cent (unchanged on 5 December)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.38. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 60.3 per cent (was 61.3 per cent on 5 December)
• SportingBet is paying $1.55 for a Coalition win and $2.35 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 60.3 per cent (unchanged)
• SportsBet is paying $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.40 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 60.5 per cent (was 62.5 per cent)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Morgan has published its last Beazley poll. It was of 2096 voters over the weekends of 25-26 November and 2-3 December. The head line prediction was a national two-party preferred vote of 52.5 per cent for Labor and 47.5 per cent for the Coalition. the predicted primary votes were 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 41 per cent for Labor.

Gary Morgan’s spin:

“In the fortnight leading up to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s Labor leadership challenge, with much speculation surrounding their plans, Labor primary support was up 0.5% to 41%. During the same period primary support for the L-NP Coalition was up 1% to 41.5%.

“The ongoing challenge for the so ‘Labor Dream Team’ is to widen its support base without disillusioning any current ALP supporters.

“The ALP holds a five point lead on a two-party preferred basis, roughly the same margin it has held since late July — federal Morgan Poll results haven’t fluctuated in comparison to other newspaper media polls in recent times.

“Don’t forget the Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies in predicting the major party vote in the recent Victorian election!”

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. I will have the latest graphs up in an hour or so. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Rumours of a Christmas holiday Cabinet reshuffle continue. Today’s Australian suggested that Immigration Minister Amanda Vanstone’s colleagues are sharpening the knives against her. Earlier speculation hinted that the time was up for Environment Minister Ian Campbell. Arts Minister Rod Kemp and Roads Minister Jim Lloyd are among others rumoured to be in the departure lounge. Rod Kemp is almost a certainty, as he wont be standing at the next election.

Andrew Robb and Malcolm Turnbull have both been named as likely promotions to the Ministry, possibly even to Cabinet. Others have suggested that Christopher Pyne and Christopher Pearce are ready for promotion (but all the way to Cabinet is unlikely).

A new, perhaps more senior, portfolio for Health Minister Abbott has also been speculated.

All kudos to: the commentator with the best earliest guesses on (a) when the next reshuffle will happen, (b) who will get what, and (c) who will be leaving. To help you in this task, the current Ministry list can be found here.