Oz Politics Blog

Another stunning Rudd poll. The latest Morgan results - from 1065 voters over the weekend of 9-10 December - predict a spectacular win for Labor: with a Labor capturing 59 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote. The Coalition would get 41 per cent.

The predicted primary votes were 50 per cent for Labor and 34.5 per cent for the Coalition.

Rudd has also managed to displace the who do you think will win result; not sufficiently to predict a Labor win, but by more than Beazley managed in the past two years.

The most recent Newspoll and Morgan poll were conducted on the same weekend. While both are most favourable to Kevin Rudd, they are inconsistent with each other in terms of the actual prediction. For example Newspoll predicted a healthy Labor Primary vote of 46 per cent. Morgan predicted 50 per cent. These predictions are statistically different. While both polls suggest significant difficulties for the Coalition, at the moment I am inclined to think the Newspoll results are closer to the mark. Doubtless Rudd will call for more cold showers.

Notwithstanding my doubts about this poll, I found myself in agreement with the pollster: “Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have changed the electoral scene — John Howard and his L-NP team now have a fight on their hands.”

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Like this from the Age …

With yesterday’s stellar Newspoll, the betting market has overcome its recent bout of nerves and returned Rudd to Beazley’s pre-challange probability of winning the 2007 Federal election.

The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.9 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. (It was 60.9 per cent on 9 December 2006).

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.61 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.7 per cent (was 62.5 per cent)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.68 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.1 per cent (was 60.3 per cent)
• SportingBet is paying $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.30 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 59.4 per cent (was 60.3 per cent)
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent (was 60.5 per cent)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

I just happened upon Morris Iemma’s website. Iemma was not well advised on the video clip. For me, it felt contrived and self conscious. If it was not on Iemma’s website, you would have thought it was a spoof from the boys at Chaser. My wife placed it in the genre of The Castle. I thought it was closer to We Can Be Heros

If I was Iemma’s spin doctor, I would have advised releasing this information through a low key backgrounder to the media. It is a good humanising story. I would have done it when Carr left and Iemma was new in the job. I would have told Iemma never to raise it or talk about it. Just let the story be out there as background information. Don’t ham it up. Don’t play to it.

What did you think?

The Australian published Newspoll’s first poll with Rudd as Opposition leader. The national two-party preferred vote prediction was 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Opposition. If an election was held last weekend, it would have been a landslide win for Labor.

The primary vote predictions were 46 per cent for Labor and 39 per cent for the Coalition.

The Australian reported,

Mr Rudd has increased Labor’s primary vote by more than any leader in the past 10 years and has delivered a bigger hit to John Howard’s rating as prime minister than that suffered by Paul Keating 12 years ago.

A week after winning the Labor leadership, Newspoll finds Mr Rudd has outstripped the initial vote-winning impact of Mark Latham’s caucus victory in December 2003.

The jump in Labor’s primary vote and Opposition leader satisfaction rating delivered by Mr Rudd rivals the surge in support that greeted the Liberals’ newly elected John Hewson in April 1990 and Alexander Downer in May 1994 - when the electorate wanted to punish the Hawke and Keating administrations.

The bounce can be seen in the following two graphs. The bounce this time is much bigger than the early 2005 bounce for Beazley.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs (including the above graphs).