Betting market update

Bryan · Monday 18 December 2006 · 11:17 pm

There was less movement over the past five days, suggestive of a market approaching an equilibrium assessment of Rudd’s chances in 2007. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.4 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. (It was 57.9 per cent on 13 December 2006).

Betting market probabilities

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.61 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.7 per cent (unchanged)
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.68 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.1 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportingBet is paying $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.30 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 59.4 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (was 58.4 per cent)

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Betting market ·