Morgan: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour
Another stunning Rudd poll. The latest Morgan results - from 1065 voters over the weekend of 9-10 December - predict a spectacular win for Labor: with a Labor capturing 59 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote. The Coalition would get 41 per cent.
The predicted primary votes were 50 per cent for Labor and 34.5 per cent for the Coalition.
Rudd has also managed to displace the who do you think will win result; not sufficiently to predict a Labor win, but by more than Beazley managed in the past two years.
The most recent Newspoll and Morgan poll were conducted on the same weekend. While both are most favourable to Kevin Rudd, they are inconsistent with each other in terms of the actual prediction. For example Newspoll predicted a healthy Labor Primary vote of 46 per cent. Morgan predicted 50 per cent. These predictions are statistically different. While both polls suggest significant difficulties for the Coalition, at the moment I am inclined to think the Newspoll results are closer to the mark. Doubtless Rudd will call for more cold showers.
Notwithstanding my doubts about this poll, I found myself in agreement with the pollster: “Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have changed the electoral scene — John Howard and his L-NP team now have a fight on their hands.”
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