Oz Politics Blog

I have not been following the Victorian election that closely; in part because I have had a series of technology problems, in part because I have been too busy at work, but mostly because it looked like another boring lay-down-misere contest. With one week to go, it still looks that way. Centrebet is paying $7.50 for a Coalition win and $1.06 for a Labor win.

New South Wales looks much more interesting. Centrebet has the Coalition ahead to win the 2007 election (albeit marginally). Centrebet is paying $1.80 for a Coalition win and $1.90 for a Labor win.

A Coalition win in New South Wales in March 2007 should make for a more interesting Federal election in October 2007. Nonetheless, the Centrebet odds for the next Federal election are unchanged from last weekend: $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win.

The odds for the next President of the United States are interesting.

CLINTON, Hillary (D) $3.00
McCAIN, John (R) $3.75
GIULIANI, Rudolph (R) $8.00
OBAMA, Barack (D) $8.00
GORE, Al (D) $11.00
EDWARDS, John (D) $17.00
ROMNEY, Mitt (R) $17.00
BAYH, Evan (D) $26.00
HUCKABEE, Mike (R) $26.00
RICE, Condoleezza (R) $26.00
RICHARDSON, Bill (D) $34.00
VILSACK, Tom (D) $34.00
BIDEN, Joe (D) $51.00
CLARK, Wesley (D) $51.00
HAGEL, Chuck (R) $51.00
GINGRICH, Newt (R) $67.00
KERRY, John (D) $67.00
BUSH, Jeb (R) $101.00

According to Steve Lewis and Dennis Shanahan, a “raft of Labor MPs contacted by The Australian yesterday raised concerns that the Opposition Leader was failing to cut through with a simple message on core issues.”

I am often left wondering by these sorts of articles. In this case, does it point to genuine fears within Labor about Beazley’s capacity to win the next election? Or was it an example of the media’s capacity to generate a heap of unverifiable, off-the-record quotes with leading questions and bold assertions?

In short, is there really dissent within the ranks or is this a beat-up?

I was also left wondering, how many MPs does a raft make?

Today’s Australian has the Newspoll results from last weekend. The headline prediction was 50 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote for the Coalition and Labor. The shock result was Labor’s primary vote prediction, which feel from 41 per cent last fortnight to 37 per cent. The Coalition primary vote fell from 42 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens and other minor parties were the winners.

In explaining the latest poll, Shanahan theologised that state sleaze was cruelling Beazley’s chances. There are sleaze factors at play in New South Wales (Carl Scully then the Orkopoulos teen sex and drugs scandal), Queensland (Merri Rose’s extortion charges), Western Australia (Brian Burke’s encore performance with Norm Marlborough), and Tasmania (conspiracy charges against the sacked former Deputy Premier).

I am not so convinced. I am always sceptical of sizable movements in opinion polls without compelling explanations. In this case, I did not find the explanations (outside of NSW) that compelling. I suspect the movement in the latest poll is little more than the normal random perturbations one expects from opinion polls. We will need to wait and see.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs (including the above graph).

Notwithstanding the punditry on the four I’s - Iraq, Interest Rates, Industrial Relations, and the Invironment - the betting market remains unmoved. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 58.0 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (unchanged on 2 November 2006).

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (unchanged)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.63 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.0 per cent (unchanged)
• SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.30 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 59.0 per cent (unchanged)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Sorry about that. I had difficulties with my domain name registration service being unable to update the name server information with the parent .info node in the United States.

It started out nice, filling in electronic forms on Sunday. I then did the electronic ticket, you know, “I have problem”, all very polite. From there we moved to emails. My service provider was also in on the act at this stage, lodging a ticket with the domain name registration service. By Thursday it was the polite phone call (after half an hour of “your call is important to us; however, all our consultants are busy at the moment …”). On Friday I threatened legal action. And on Saturday morning, normal service appears to have been restored.

You can see the impact of the lengthy downtime in the following graphs.

Once again, please accept my apologies for the interruption to services.