Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Australian reported the latest Newspoll. The headline prediction was a national two-party preferred vote of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition.

The Coalition primary vote prediction was 41 per cent (unchanged on the previous fortnight). The Labor primary vote prediction was 39 per cent (up two points on the previous fortnight, but down two points on the fortnight before that). The Greens primary vote prediction was 7 per cent (down two points).

The Labor leadership speculation over the past fortnight saw Beazley slump in the beauty contest polling. His approval rating was 28 per cent (down six points). His disapproval rating was 58 per cent (up eight points). While Labor’s primary vote prediction in the previous Newspoll appears to have been an outlier, the latest attitudinal polling suggests a significant softness in Beazley’s support base.

Newspoll examined leadership alternatives.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, a new leadership team of Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard has an almost two-to-one advantage over Mr Beazley and his deputy, Jenny Macklin, at 52 per cent to 27 per cent.

Mr Rudd, who has built his public profile during the months of the Cole commission of inquiry into kickbacks to former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, is the most popular choice as leader of the party at 28 per cent, up six points since August.

Ms Gillard is close behind at 27per cent, virtually the same as August, while Mr Beazley trails in third place at 24 per cent, down six points.

…

Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard had a clear advantage over the Beazley-Macklin team in every demographic group and among both Coalition and Labor voters.

The Rudd-Gillard team’s biggest lead was among people aged more than 50 and Coalition voters, 56 to 24 per cent, and the Beazley-Macklin team’s strongest area was among those aged between 18 and 34; 30 per cent compared with 48 for the Rudd team.

For me the last paragraph was the most significant. The over-fifties is the demographic Labor needs to win, if they are to win government.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. I will have the latest graphs up in an hour or so. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs (including the above graph).