Betting market update

Bryan · Tuesday 24 October 2006 · 6:42 am

In the past fortnight, there has been another slight movement in the Coalition’s favour. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. (It was 57.4 per cent on 10 October 2006.)

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (unchanged)
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.63 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.0 per cent (was 57.1 per cent)
  • SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportsBet is paying $1.65 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.1 per cent (unchanged)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

ACNielsen: Libs to lose Victorian poll

Bryan · 6:27 am

According to today’s Age, Labor is currently sitting on 56 per cent of the two party preferred vote, and the Coalition 44 per cent as we approach the Victorian poll on 25 November 2006.

Turning around a 56-44 split with one month to go is a Herculean task for the Coalition. The best hope the pollster can offer the Coaltion is …

Eighty-seven per cent of those surveyed supported Mr Baillieu’s policy — rejected by Labor — to cut poker machine numbers from 27,500 to 22,000. Only 6 per cent opposed it. Even among Labor voters, 86 per cent supported the Liberal proposal.

And in another hopeful sign for the Liberals, the latest poll shows the proportion of voters who say they are undecided about who they will support at the election has doubled over the past two months to 14 per cent.

ACNielsen research director John Stirton said: “While Labor is in a strong position, this unusually high proportion of undecideds is Mr Baillieu’s best hope of closing the gap between now and November 25.”

The Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun has a predicted outcome of 52 to 48 per cent in Labor’s favour: a much closer race.

Centrebet has Labor on $1.05 to win, and the Coalition on $8.00. That equates to a 12 per cent chance of a Coalition win, and an 88 per cent chance of a Labor win.

Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Tuesday 17 October 2006 · 6:06 am

Yes, it is another poll predicting a Labor victory.

The headline Newspoll predication was a national twoi-party preferred vote of 52 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition, were an election held last weekend.

The primary vote predictions were 41 per cent each for Labor and the Coalition.

According to the Australian, on “the question of who would make the better prime minister, Mr Howard maintained his two-to-one advantage over Mr Beazley of 54 to 26 per cent”.

The usual graphs will follow.

A conga line of suckholes

Bryan · Sunday 15 October 2006 · 10:13 pm

On Wednesday I flew from Canberra to Dubbo and back again. To help pass the time, I decided to read a book. The bookshop at Canberra airport had a shelf dedicated to Mark Latham’s latest offering, A conga line of suckholes. It was my third Latham book; Latham’s seventh.

My first Latham book was Civilising Global Capital. I hated it. It was a turgid, pompous head wank, a never-ending story spanning some 440 pages of pseudo-academic gobbledygook. For sure, there were some bloody good ideas there, but they would have been better expressed in plain English in under 100 pages.

It was with some trepidation I plunged into my second Latham book, the Latham Diaries. To my surprise, I really enjoyed it. I wrote then, “it is a book packed with insights on Australian politics and the key policy debates between 1994 and 2004. It’s a passionate insider’s view: biased, at times jaundiced and occasionally over the top. It is as Latham claimed, politics in the raw. I found it a bloody good read. Four stars.”

My third Latham book, A conga line of suckholes, is simply a collection of quotes and anecdotes sorted alphabetically by category. It is as described in its subtitle: Mark Latham’s book of quotations. According to Latham,

During my time in politics I not only kept a diary of events … but also a collection of quotes and anecdotes. In our daily lives we all come across words that leave a lasting impression, whether in the form of favourite sayings or telltale stories. In my case when something caught my eye I would jot it down or rip it out, and then keep it in a large blue folder on my desk. Over two decades I built up a substantial collection: some of it amusing, some of it philosophical, all of it (in my eyes, at least) an interesting reflection on public life.

Where do I begin? It was not amusing. It was not philosophical. It was not an interesting reflection on public life. The book is crap.

The quotes are (barely) of a sophomore standard. Most you would be familiar with. They can be summed up in three words: trite, hackneyed, and prosaic. The monthly Reader’s Digest has more insightful and amusing quotes that tell us more about life. For my flight to Dubbo, the Reader’s Digest would have been the better investment.

The saddest thing was Mark Latham’s need to quote himself throughout. Thank god this guy did not become Prime Minister. He is clearly long on self-delusion and short on humility. A quick flick through the index revealed more quotes attributed to Latham than anyone else. Latham would have us know that his words are many times more valuable than the other great men and women of history. He is a legend in his own mind.

I can think of no better demonstration of the book’s failing than to regurgitate Latham on Latham. Unfortunately, you would not be surprised to learn that the Latham quotes are among the longest in the book. Even avoiding the prolix and interminable Latham, these quotes reveal the banality of a conga line of suckholes.

[Economic rationalism] is a slogan for people who don’t like the market economy, but don’t know what to do about it.

Take your badge off, Adolf. (Latham to Ruddock)

Some people see the media as a profession or a career. It is, in fact, a sickness: a crippling addition to public voyeurism.

An American wag once described politics as showbiz for ugly people. In this country, political commentary is payback from ugly old men.

Beneath every problem is a process which needs fixing.

My “favourite” Latham quotes were the ones that were not Latham. For some reason I cannot explain, Latham attributed each of the following quotes to himself. I will let you be the judge.

[Keating] on Stephen Smith (Shadow Minister for Communications): ‘How could he ever handle Packer? He’s always between a shit and a shiver’.

At Caucus, Keating recalls Arthur Caldwell’s advice: ‘The secret to politics is to be at the first Caucus meeting after each election’.

Carl Jung was right: churches do not encourage religious experiences by individuals because it might make the priests redundant.

As I said, “the book is crap”. (Perhaps quoting yourself is contagious). Zero stars out of five.

Morgan: 54.5 to 45.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Thursday 12 October 2006 · 9:53 pm

Only Morgan gives you the “facts” behind every statistic.

“The ongoing Telstra debate, the media ownership reforms and the Iraq War controversy have hurt the Howard Government over the past fortnight, with Coalition primary support dropping by 2.5%. The ALP now holds a commanding 9% lead on a two-party preferred basis.

Believe it or not? Perhaps these factors were not at play in the previous fortnight when the Morgan poll moved towards the government?

Morgan: Two-party preferred vote for Coalition

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.