Oz Politics Blog

The latest Morgan poll results are out. Labor is a ahead on a national two-party preferred basis with a predicted 53 per cent of the vote. The Coalition would get 47 per cent.

On the primary votes, Labor is ahead on 41.5 per cent to the Coalition’s 40.5 per cent.

According to the pollster:

With an interest rate rise (on Melbourne Cup day) there will be an immediate effect on the mood of electors, especially considering the L-NP’s last election campaign revolved around economic capability and it’s track record of low interest rates compared to Labor Government’s of the past.

The ALP is still ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis (53% cf. 47%) and more interest rate rises will further consolidate the ALP’s winning position in the lead up to next year’s Federal election.

However, now 58.5% (unchanged) think the L-NP will win the next Federal election compared to only 28.5% who think the ALP will win. When this gap begins to narrow, it will be a clear indication that the effect of interest rate rises is detrimental to the Government’s chances of being re-elected next year.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.