Oz Politics Blog

According to today’s Age, Labor is currently sitting on 56 per cent of the two party preferred vote, and the Coalition 44 per cent as we approach the Victorian poll on 25 November 2006.

Turning around a 56-44 split with one month to go is a Herculean task for the Coalition. The best hope the pollster can offer the Coaltion is …

Eighty-seven per cent of those surveyed supported Mr Baillieu’s policy — rejected by Labor — to cut poker machine numbers from 27,500 to 22,000. Only 6 per cent opposed it. Even among Labor voters, 86 per cent supported the Liberal proposal.

And in another hopeful sign for the Liberals, the latest poll shows the proportion of voters who say they are undecided about who they will support at the election has doubled over the past two months to 14 per cent.

ACNielsen research director John Stirton said: “While Labor is in a strong position, this unusually high proportion of undecideds is Mr Baillieu’s best hope of closing the gap between now and November 25.”

The Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun has a predicted outcome of 52 to 48 per cent in Labor’s favour: a much closer race.

Centrebet has Labor on $1.05 to win, and the Coalition on $8.00. That equates to a 12 per cent chance of a Coalition win, and an 88 per cent chance of a Labor win.