Betting market update

Bryan · Monday 2 October 2006 · 6:23 am

Its been almost two weeks since I last checked the betting market. Since then, there has been a slight movement in Labor’s favour. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.3 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (was 57.5 per cent on 20 September 2006).

Betting market probabilities

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (was 59.7 per cent)
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.8 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportsBet is paying $1.65 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.1 per cent (unchanged)

I think the betting market pretty well sums up my views on the next election. On balance, if I were asked whom did I think would win the next election I would say Howard’s Coalition. According to Morgan, it is the popular answer. Almost 60 per cent of the population believe the Coalition will win the next election, while less than half that amount believe Labor will.

However, it’s not a lay down misere, and this is where the betting market gets it right. The betting market gives Beazley a more than 40 per cent chance of winning the next election. Not all that bad odds for Labor. Labor has been well ahead in the polls for around a year now. And the Coalition has a few problems of its own – Work Choices, interest rates, housing prices, AWB, Iraq and Telstra – to name just a few.

In summary: while I currently think Howard will win, it is not a strong conviction, and I would not be all that surprised if Beazley got up at the next election.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Betting market ·