Newspoll: 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour
This is the second landslide-for-Labor Newspoll in a row. The headline prediction had Labor winning 53 per cent of the national two party preferred vote were an election held last weekend.
If we look at the next two graphs, we can see why Labor’s fortunes have risen. The three major pollsters have found that Labor’s primary vote rose steadily since the last election from roughly 37 to 42 per cent. On the other hand, the Coalition’s primary vote fell from some 46 per cent to around 42 percent in January this year. Since then it has (at best) flat-lined at around 42 per cent.
Because Labor typically wins 60 per cent of the non-major-party preferences, and because it is growing its primary vote while the Coalition primary vote has flat-lined (perhaps even declined slightly), Labor is increasingly seeing polls that predict a landslide win.
Put simply, the Coalition has an electoral problem and only 12 months to fix it. It has won from worse polls 12 months out. Still, I think we know why the Coalition has flipped the switch to vaudeville and ditched the rough end of the Work Choices pineapple. It’s called Operation Tart-Up.