Betting market update
Over the past week and a bit, there was little movement to report in the betting market for the next Federal election. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.5 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (up from 57.3 per cent on 4 September).
The more favourable odds for the Coalition at Centrebet are starting to look a little out of step with the other bookies.
- For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.55 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.30. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 59.7 per cent (up from 58.9 per cent)
- For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.8 per cent (unchanged)
- SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
- SportsBet is paying $1.65 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win (was $1.60 and $2.25). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.1 per cent (unchanged)
Today’s interesting question: Why is the betting market out of step with the polls, which have been predicting a Labor win for the past six months?
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