Preference flows
The Parliamentary Library has released a research note on preference flows at Federal elections.
It provides good evidence to ignore some of the more excessive polling preference flows, which can sometimes go as high as 80 per cent for Labor. For example, with the 2004 election Morgan was close on the predicted primary votes, but it got its two-party preferred prediction wrong because it had determined that the Coalition would only get 22 per cent of preference flows. Personally, I reckon 60-62 per cent for Labor is a much more compelling assignment of the non-Labor and non-Coalition preferences when examining polling data.
The Parliamentary Library has also released an e-brief on the annual allowance for senators and members.