Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Australian reported the latest findings from Newspoll for the weekend ending on 13 August 2006. Apparently the Coalition has an “election winning lead” of 51 per cent of the nationally two party preferred vote.

Bollocks!

If you take the broader view, all of the opinion polls are tracking flat lines at the moment, and it is difficult to point to significant events that would explain a change in voter behaviour last weekend. 51 per cent for the Coalition is at the top of the range of results since 1 April 2006, with the six-period moving average tracking at around 49 per cent for the Coalition. My best guess is that today’s Newspoll was more noise than signal.

Today’s TPP result was driven largely by a fall in Labor’s primary vote prediction, from 41 to 37 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote rose from 42 to 44 per cent. Again, I would bet on random noise associated with the probabilistic nature of opinion polling, over a genuine shift in the population parameters.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The latest ACNielsen poll of 1411 voters (detailed here) predicted that Labor would have got 53 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote, were an election held between last Thursday and Saturday.

While the headline prediction looks bad for the government, the government would draw some comfort from the primary vote predictions: 41 per cent for Labor (unchanged on the previous ACNielsen poll) and 42 per cent for the Coalition (down one point). If preferences are distributed along the lines they were last election, the two-party preferred prediction would have been 48.5 to 51.5 in Labor’s favour.

Beazley has taken a bit of a hit in the attitudinal surveys. His approval rating is down four points, and his disapproval rating is up two. But these results are still better than his nadir in April this year.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

It has been a week since I last checked the betting market. There has been another small movement in Howard’s favour, notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that interest rates, petrol prices and industrial relations are fertile ground for a Labor victory in 2007.

The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government (up from 57.1 last Wednesday) following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (unchanged on Wednesday last week)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.8 per cent (up from 55.8)
• SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (up from 55.3)
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent (unchanged)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

I was caught out. Normally Newspoll comes out once a fortnight, but today’s poll is only a week on from the previous poll.

While the headline for today’s Newspoll had Howard escaping a negative hit from interest rates, the Government’s downward 6 period moving average trend continued.

The national two-party preferred vote prediction was 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition. For the primary vote predictions, the Coalition dropped one point to 42 per cent, and Labor rose one point to 41 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Another Morgan poll; and another five or six-point swing from the previous Morgan poll. This year Morgan has produced a chart that looks more like the output from a seismic recorder during an earthquake than what you would expect from an opinion pollster. It is the revenge of the yo-yos.

Ironically, behind the wild gyrations, the six-period moving average is pretty much a flat line, two percentage points in Labor’s territory. This is a much more plausible story than four- or six-point swings first one way, then the other, and back again from fortnight to fortnight.

The pollster’s commentary is just as meaningful.

“In late July, the ALP experienced a jump in support following the announcement of higher than expected CPI data, which culminated in a 0.25% interest rate rise this week. ALP primary support was up 5.5% to 42%, ahead of the L-NP (40%, down 5%), while on a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is ahead 53.5% to 46.5%.

“The Israel-Hezbollah conflict in the Middle East distracted the electorate from internal politics during the past fortnight. In a Morgan Poll taken last week, 79% of Australians were in favour of a cease-fire, while 34% of Australians blame Israel or America for the escalation in violence compared to 23% who blame Hezbollah and its sympathisers (Iran, Syria, Palestine, Hamas).

“However, domestic issues will decide who wins next year’s election — industrial relations, interest rates and strong leadership!”

Give me more motherhood and home made apple pie. I mean really, who writes this stuff? Does Morgan seriously believe the Israel-Hezbollah conflict distracted voters? As for the prediction — industrial relations, interest rates and strong leadership – while it could well be true, I cannot fathom how Morgan determined it from its polling data. It looks like another vacuous cliché. And, anyway, why didn’t Morgan mention petrol prices? Is it tipping a price downturn?

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.