Oz Politics Blog

… have just firmed for Labor.

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This morning Centrebet is paying $1.05 for a Labor win and $8.00 for a Coalition win. That equates to an 88 per cent probability of a Labor government and a 12 per cent probability of a Coalition government. Update: on 23 August it moved to $1.02 and $10.00 — yielding probabilities of 91 and 9 per cent. Update: on 3 September it moved to $1.03 and $9.00. Update: on 5 September it was $1.04 and $8.00. Update: on 6 September it is back to $1.02 and $10.00.

Today’s Newspoll has Beattie “well-placed to secure a historic fourth term in power”, with an eight point lead in its two party preferred prediction. Morgan gave Labor a 13 point lead in its two party preferred prediction for Queensland. Update: on 26 August Galaxy gave Labor 47 per cent of the primary vote and “edging closer to” 55.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

The Poll Bludger and Antony Green are both maintaining their excellent standards of coverage for the Queensland election.