Morgan: 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour
Today’s Morgan poll has Labor six points ahead of the Coalition on the predicted national two-party preferred vote share: 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
Like the other pollsters, Morgan’s medium term moving average is pretty much a flat line. Whereas Newspoll and ACNielsen place that flat line at roughly 51 to 49 per cent in Labor’s favour, Morgan has it at 52 to 48 per cent. I am more inclined to believe the other pollsters. Poll-after-poll, Morgan’s results are typically to the left of the other pollsters. Recent election results suggest Morgan’s leftish bias (when compared with the other pollsters) is likely to be erroneous.
One of the things I look forward to with every Morgan poll is the hyperbolic commentary. With the agility of a gymnast, the facts of the previous fortnight are welded to the stochastic exigencies of the latest poll, and then served fresh with lashings of homespun wisdom. This week is unusual. Without a four- or six-point gyration to explain, we only have the homespun:
It is not surprising the ALP continues to lead the Howard Government - they’re under pressure on asylum seekers, stem cell research, petrol prices, industrial relations and interest rates.
It is clear that what happens to Australian interest rates over the next year will be a key factor (along with petrol prices and industrial relations) in determining the outcome of the 2007 Federal Election. If the recent fall in consumer confidence results in Australians cutting back borrowing and spending, then a further interest rate ‘hike’ is unlikely — time will tell.
If Morgan goes out of business, he could always get a job selling real estate.
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