Weekly betting market update

Bryan · Wednesday 16 August 2006 · 5:59 am

Queensland

Following Premier Beattie’s announcement yesterday of a 9 September election in Queensland, the books are open. This morning Centrebet is paying $1.10 for a Labor win and $6.00 for a Coalition win. That equates to an 85 per cent probability of a Labor government and a 15 per cent probability of a Coalition government.

Update 8am 17 August 2006: Now $1.12 and $5.50, yielding an 83 per cent probability for a Labor government, and a 17 per probability for a Coalition government.

Update 7.30am 18 August 2006: Back to $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 8.00am 19 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 7.00am 20 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 8.00am 21 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 9.00am 22 August 2006: $1.05 and $8.00 — probabilities of 88 and 12 per cent.

Federal

There was no movement to report in the betting market for the next Federal election. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

Betting market probabilities

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (unchanged on Wednesday last week)
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.8 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
  • SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent (unchanged)

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Queensland · Betting market ·