Morgan: 53.5 to 46.5 in Labor’s favour
Another Morgan poll; and another five or six-point swing from the previous Morgan poll. This year Morgan has produced a chart that looks more like the output from a seismic recorder during an earthquake than what you would expect from an opinion pollster. It is the revenge of the yo-yos.
Ironically, behind the wild gyrations, the six-period moving average is pretty much a flat line, two percentage points in Labor’s territory. This is a much more plausible story than four- or six-point swings first one way, then the other, and back again from fortnight to fortnight.
The pollster’s commentary is just as meaningful.
“In late July, the ALP experienced a jump in support following the announcement of higher than expected CPI data, which culminated in a 0.25% interest rate rise this week. ALP primary support was up 5.5% to 42%, ahead of the L-NP (40%, down 5%), while on a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is ahead 53.5% to 46.5%.
“The Israel-Hezbollah conflict in the Middle East distracted the electorate from internal politics during the past fortnight. In a Morgan Poll taken last week, 79% of Australians were in favour of a cease-fire, while 34% of Australians blame Israel or America for the escalation in violence compared to 23% who blame Hezbollah and its sympathisers (Iran, Syria, Palestine, Hamas).
“However, domestic issues will decide who wins next year’s election — industrial relations, interest rates and strong leadership!â€
Give me more motherhood and home made apple pie. I mean really, who writes this stuff? Does Morgan seriously believe the Israel-Hezbollah conflict distracted voters? As for the prediction — industrial relations, interest rates and strong leadership – while it could well be true, I cannot fathom how Morgan determined it from its polling data. It looks like another vacuous cliché. And, anyway, why didn’t Morgan mention petrol prices? Is it tipping a price downturn?
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.