Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Australian has the New South Wales Coalition in freefall. Indeed all of the Labor states facing an election over the next 8 months look safe in the most recent Newspolls.

… have just firmed for Labor.

You may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to get the updated probabilities image.

This morning Centrebet is paying $1.05 for a Labor win and $8.00 for a Coalition win. That equates to an 88 per cent probability of a Labor government and a 12 per cent probability of a Coalition government. Update: on 23 August it moved to $1.02 and $10.00 — yielding probabilities of 91 and 9 per cent. Update: on 3 September it moved to $1.03 and $9.00. Update: on 5 September it was $1.04 and $8.00. Update: on 6 September it is back to $1.02 and $10.00.

Today’s Newspoll has Beattie “well-placed to secure a historic fourth term in power”, with an eight point lead in its two party preferred prediction. Morgan gave Labor a 13 point lead in its two party preferred prediction for Queensland. Update: on 26 August Galaxy gave Labor 47 per cent of the primary vote and “edging closer to” 55.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

The Poll Bludger and Antony Green are both maintaining their excellent standards of coverage for the Queensland election.

Today’s Morgan poll has Labor six points ahead of the Coalition on the predicted national two-party preferred vote share: 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

Like the other pollsters, Morgan’s medium term moving average is pretty much a flat line. Whereas Newspoll and ACNielsen place that flat line at roughly 51 to 49 per cent in Labor’s favour, Morgan has it at 52 to 48 per cent. I am more inclined to believe the other pollsters. Poll-after-poll, Morgan’s results are typically to the left of the other pollsters. Recent election results suggest Morgan’s leftish bias (when compared with the other pollsters) is likely to be erroneous.

One of the things I look forward to with every Morgan poll is the hyperbolic commentary. With the agility of a gymnast, the facts of the previous fortnight are welded to the stochastic exigencies of the latest poll, and then served fresh with lashings of homespun wisdom. This week is unusual. Without a four- or six-point gyration to explain, we only have the homespun:

It is not surprising the ALP continues to lead the Howard Government - they’re under pressure on asylum seekers, stem cell research, petrol prices, industrial relations and interest rates.

It is clear that what happens to Australian interest rates over the next year will be a key factor (along with petrol prices and industrial relations) in determining the outcome of the 2007 Federal Election. If the recent fall in consumer confidence results in Australians cutting back borrowing and spending, then a further interest rate ‘hike’ is unlikely — time will tell.

If Morgan goes out of business, he could always get a job selling real estate.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Mackerras put out his pendulum in July. Now the Parliamentary Library has put out its pendulum.

There are a number of (marginal) differences between the two.

Queensland

Following Premier Beattie’s announcement yesterday of a 9 September election in Queensland, the books are open. This morning Centrebet is paying $1.10 for a Labor win and $6.00 for a Coalition win. That equates to an 85 per cent probability of a Labor government and a 15 per cent probability of a Coalition government.

Update 8am 17 August 2006: Now $1.12 and $5.50, yielding an 83 per cent probability for a Labor government, and a 17 per probability for a Coalition government.

Update 7.30am 18 August 2006: Back to $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 8.00am 19 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 7.00am 20 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 8.00am 21 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 9.00am 22 August 2006: $1.05 and $8.00 — probabilities of 88 and 12 per cent.

Federal

There was no movement to report in the betting market for the next Federal election. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (unchanged on Wednesday last week)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.8 per cent (unchanged)
• SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent (unchanged)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.