Betting market weekly update
Following last week’s CPI figures, the stock market is expecting one and possibly two interest rate rises between now and the next election. As a consequence, I had expected the betting market to downgrade Howard’s chances of winning the 2007 Federal election. So far it has not happened. It appears that Costello’s tilt at the leadership was more debilitating for the Liberals than an interest rate rise. Go figure.
The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 56.7 per cent probability of a Coalition government (unchanged on last week), and a 43.3 per cent chance of a Labor government following the 2007 Federal election.
- For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent
- For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.70 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.8 per cent
- SportingBet is paying $1.70 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.3 per cent
- SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent
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