Morgan: 52 to 48 in the Coalition’s favour
Morgan has broken its fortnightly reporting cycle to bring the results from the first weekend of face to face polling. The headline, national two-party preferred vote prediction had the Coalition on 52 per cent (was 46.5 per cent in the previous poll), and Labor on 48 per cent (was 53.5 per cent). It was a 5.5 percentage point movement in a week.
The national primary vote predictions were: 45 per cent for the Coalition (up 6), 36.5 per cent for Labor (down 6), 1.5 per cent for the Australian Democrats (down 1), 7.5 per cent for the Greens (down 1), 2.5 per cent for family first (unchanged), 1.5 per cent for One Nation (up 0.5), and 5.5 per cent for other.
Let’s call a spade a spade. These results are an anomaly. Public opinion does not move that quickly or far in a week, without a bloody good reason. John Howard’s triumph over Peter Costello is not a compelling enough reason. Furthermore, the volatility in the Morgan series since September last year is breathtaking.
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