Oz Politics Blog

Morgan: 53.5 to 46.5 in Labor’s favour

Morgan’s poll results are out from 1991 electors over the weekends of 1-2 and 8-9 July. The headline message is a national two-party preferred prediction of 53.5 per cent of the vote for Labor and 46.5 per cent for the Coalition.

The primary vote predictions are 39 per cent for the Coalition (down 3 per cent on the previous poll), 42.5 per cent for Labor (up 2), and 8.5 per cent for the Greens (unchanged).

According to the pollster, “Before the revelation of the Howard/Costello leadership deal, the ALP held a commanding 7% on a two-party preferred basis.”

There are no graphs while I am travelling around.

Morgan also looked at the Liberal Party leadership.

Prime Minister John Howard is preferred by 43% (up 7% since March) of all electors to be the Coalition Leader at the next Federal Election, 17% (unchanged) prefer Peter Costello, 8% (down 1%) Alexander Downer and 6% for both Tony Abbott (unchanged) and Malcolm Turnbull (down 4%). Of L-NP voters, a substantial 70% prefer Mr Howard as Liberal Leader, while only 12% prefer Mr Costello according to a special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights.

In addition, a higher proportion of electors (48%) say Opposition Leader Kim Beazley would make a better Prime Minister than Peter Costello (41%), while 11% can’t say. This should be of concern to Mr Costello supporters as 61% (unchanged since March 2006) of electors believe John Howard is a better PM than Mr Beazley (34%) would be while 5% can’t say.