Betting market

Bryan · Thursday 13 July 2006 · 8:59 am

Centrebet has a range of odds out this morning.

  1. The outcome of the next Federal election: paying $1.65 for the Coalition and $2.10 for Labor. Update at 4.45pm: now $1.60 and $2.20.
  2. When John Howard’s prime ministerial reign will end: paying $3.25 for 2006, $2.10 for 2007, $6.50 for 2008, and $4.50 for 2009 or later. Update at 4.45pm: now paying $4.00 for 2006, $2.20 for 2007, $6.00 for 2008, and $3.50 for 2009 or later
  3. Who will lead the Liberal Party to the next Federal election: paying $1.33 for Howard, $4.00 for Costello, $7.50 for Nelson, $26.00 for Turnbull, $34.00 for Abbott, $101.00 for Downer, and $67.00 for anyone else. Update at 4.45pm: now paying $1.25 for Howard, $4.50 for Costello, $8.50 for Nelson, $34.00 for Turnbull, $41.00 for Abbott, $101.00 for Downer, and $67.00 for anyone else

Update at 4.45pm: it looks like the punters reckon Costello has got Buckley’s chances of getting the top job before the next election.

Also, I just noticed that Gerard Daffy from Centrebet had this to say (dated today, but presumably posted this morning),

The heavyweight showdown between Prime Minister John Howard and Peter Costello has been looming for a while and after three days of intense battle; we have the PM ahead on points.

There may well be a long way to go with this one, so we thought it timely to resurrect a couple of our markets. The one on who will lead the Coalition at the next election has proven the most topical.

John Howard was 1.65 a few months ago with Costello at 3.00, but the PM was cut to 1.33 when we reassessed it this week. We have pushed Peter Costello out to 4.00 with Brendan Nelson the big mover, into 7.50 from 17.00.

The rationale behind that is, if Peter Costello thought he had the numbers to challenge, he would have. It is clear that the PM isn’t overly keen on handing over the reigns to Peter Costello as he would have said so, which leaves Nelson, as the likely candidate if there is to be a change. There hasn’t been a lot of action since betting reopened but one punter did place $150 on Costello.

The next election winner has also reopened with some changes to the market. The Coalition has drifted from 1.57 out to 1.65 and Labor has been cut to 2.10.

Costello for PM · Betting market ·