Another Kirribilli deal?
Remember the 1988 Kirribilli pact between Hawke and Keating? Well Costello’s unwillingness to deny a leadership transition deal with Howard has set fresh speculation running. According to the Tiser, a key exchange between Costello and a journalist went as follows.
“Can I just ask you a plain simple question? Is there an understanding between you and Mr Howard as to his departure?” a reporter asked at a press conference in the Solomon Islands.
“Look, these things have worked in the interests of the Australian people and the Liberal Party and the people concerned and there is no point in speculating on it,” Mr Costello said.
The SMH reported this exchange,
Asked if voters had a right to know whether there was a deal, Mr Costello said “voters get the right to vote”.
“They will get the right to vote on who they want to run the country. They will have plenty of information at the time of the election,” he said.
However, the SMH also reported
Mr Howard has emphatically ruled out ever doing such a deal. Yesterday he referred to quotes he had made during an interview in March to celebrate his 10 years in office, when he said Mr Keating and Mr Hawke had no right to make the Kirribilli pact.
“The prime ministership of Australia is not mine to confer on somebody else,” Mr Howard said. “If I decided at some time in the future that I was going to go, then the Liberal Party will decide my successor and not me.
Confirming the Prime Minister’s denial, the Australian referred to Howard’s May 2004 comments: “There are no deals, and that’s been my position all along and it will remain my position.”
My assessment: There is no deal. Costello is using ambiguity to hype his profile and promote the notion of an orderly transfer in the near future. It is a risky strategy. It may backfire, cementing the Prime Minister in position for another election.
Update 8 July 2006: This exchange on last night’s Lateline has stirred the pot without actually adding much clarity.
GRAHAME MORRIS: I don’t know. The Prime Minister said “no deal”. But, look, it’s not hard to work out. I don’t know why journos don’t believe it. But somewhere around November, the Prime Minister will focus on this and then the country and the party and, you know, the PM’s family and Peter Costello, everyone will know somewhere around Christmas time. But why on Earth would the Prime Minister focus on it now when he doesn’t have to? And you can just tell, the minute he starts focusing on, “Am I coming or going?” you will know from his body language. So he’s sort of made the conscious decision - wait until November and then he will have a think about it.
MAXINE MCKEW: What is significant about November? Are you giving us all a hint there?
GRAHAME MORRIS: No, nothing…
MAXINE MCKEW: Oh, come on!
GRAHAME MORRIS: Except that you would announce it - if you were going to announce it, you’d announce it somewhere over that silly season and Christmas and, if he chose to stay, that means there’s nine months to an election to get organised and, if he chooses to go, that’s nine months for the new leader to get organised with his team, and I think that’s plenty of time.
MAXINE MCKEW: You’ve said in the past to us on this program you believe that the Prime Minister still has not made up his mind. Do you still think that’s the case?
GRAHAME MORRIS: Genuinely, that is right. Look, Maxine, you will know it. He’s fairly transparent in his body language and the minute he’s coming or the minute he’s going you will be able to tell, and that’s why I suspect November, December is why he’s decided, “Then I’ll focus on it and I’ll let everyone know.”