Oz Politics Blog

The latest ACNielsen poll (reported here and here) predicted a national two-party preferred vote of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition, were an election held last Thursday through to Saturday.

The primary vote prediction for Labor was 36 per cent. This was down four points on the previous ACNielsen poll, and it is significantly lower than the 40 per cent typically needed for Labor to win office. The prediction for the Coalition was 41 per cent (unchanged). The Greens received 11 per cent (unchanged). While not reported, the minor parties appear to have collected 12 per cent between them.

The big mystery in these figures is the unusually low Labor primary vote. For the moment I am inclined to think this result is more likely to be erroneous than meaningful. I am loath to accept large movements in period-on-period polling unless there is a compelling reason. I don’t think Labor’s performance has been that bad over the last month. If I am right, Labor’s position is better than 51 per cent in the two party preferred polling. Let’s see what Newspoll says tomorrow.

On industrial relations,

The poll found 38 per cent supported Mr Beazley’s abolition of the agreements, 27 per cent opposed it, while 35 per cent had no opinion or did not care. Of the 82 per cent of voters aware of the industrial relations changes, 6 per cent thought they would be better off, 27 per cent worse off, and 64 per cent - up seven points since October - said they would “make no difference”.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Update: Andrew Leigh observed that the May poll is the likely problem. I am inclined to agree in terms of 2PP result, but the Labor primary vote this time is strange. Also, ACNielsen typically over-estimates the Greens.

The latest Morgan results are out. The two party preferred prediction, were an election held over the last two weekends, is that Labor would win 53 per cent of the national two party preferred vote. The Coalition would win 47 per cent.

If you factor in how people say they will allocate preferences, the result is even starker: 54 to 46 in Labor’s favour. However, it is always difficult to know what to do with such stark polls. As we have discussed before, Stanford University academic Simon Jackman identified a 4.7 per cent systemic pro-Labor bias in the Morgan polls in the four months prior to the 2004 Federal election. Still, I cannot imagine Howard is happy with this poll.

The national prediction for the primaries was 42 per cent for Labor, 39.5 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

While I normally do graphs for this kind of thing, I am still wrestling with the Windows Vista beta and the Excel 2007 beta. I will ditch them on the weekend (both need more development). The old opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

I have not done this for three weeks, and yet there is noting to report. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 58.2 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent.
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent.
• SportingBet is paying $1.62 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs. (I am playing with the beta version of Excel 2007, which I have not quite tamed, so apologies if the graphs look a little funny).

At the end of another month it is time to aggregate the polls and construct the monthly average. In May 2006 almost 7800 people were polled. The predicted national two-party preferred vote for May was 51.9 per cent for Labor and 48.1 per cent for the Coalition.

The most favourable polls for the Coalition over the period were Morgan and Newspoll of 14 May. Both gave the Coalition 50 per cent. The most favourable polls for Labor were ACNielsen of 21 May, with 54 per cent; and Morgan of 7 May with 53.5 per cent.

The two-party preferred prediction for May is up marginally on April for the Coalition. The Coalition improved it’s primary vote share from 40.2 per cent to 41.3 per cent, and Labor was essentially unchanged (moving from 40.2 per cent to 40.3 per cent).

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The latest Morgan poll is out. Its national prediction, were an election held over the last two weekends, was:

• Coalition primary vote: 42 per cent (unchanged since the last morgan poll)
• Labor primary vote: 41 per cent (up 0.5 per cent)
• Two party preferred vote: 48.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent in Labor’s favour (was 50-50)

There are some interesting features with this poll.

First, the Family First vote is the highest it has ever been — at 3 per cent. I think this is just a one off sampling issue; but it may explain the following observations.

Second, in the two party preferred vote, the Coalition did better according to how people said they would vote (49 per cent), compared with an attribution of the non-Coalition, non-Labor votes according to the preference distributions at the last election (48.5 per cent). Almost always, this relationship is the other way around (see following graph).

Third, Morgan is currently the most favourable of the three polls to the Coalition.

Finally, Looking across the Morgan polls since the last election, there appears to be a lot more volatility in the series since September last year. Does this suggest an edginess or flightiness among the punters? Perhaps there is a feeling of “a pox on both your houses”?

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.