ACNielsen: 51 to 49 in Labor’s favour
The latest ACNielsen poll (reported here and here) predicted a national two-party preferred vote of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition, were an election held last Thursday through to Saturday.
The primary vote prediction for Labor was 36 per cent. This was down four points on the previous ACNielsen poll, and it is significantly lower than the 40 per cent typically needed for Labor to win office. The prediction for the Coalition was 41 per cent (unchanged). The Greens received 11 per cent (unchanged). While not reported, the minor parties appear to have collected 12 per cent between them.
The big mystery in these figures is the unusually low Labor primary vote. For the moment I am inclined to think this result is more likely to be erroneous than meaningful. I am loath to accept large movements in period-on-period polling unless there is a compelling reason. I don’t think Labor’s performance has been that bad over the last month. If I am right, Labor’s position is better than 51 per cent in the two party preferred polling. Let’s see what Newspoll says tomorrow.
On industrial relations,
The poll found 38 per cent supported Mr Beazley’s abolition of the agreements, 27 per cent opposed it, while 35 per cent had no opinion or did not care. Of the 82 per cent of voters aware of the industrial relations changes, 6 per cent thought they would be better off, 27 per cent worse off, and 64 per cent - up seven points since October - said they would “make no difference”.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Update: Andrew Leigh observed that the May poll is the likely problem. I am inclined to agree in terms of 2PP result, but the Labor primary vote this time is strange. Also, ACNielsen typically over-estimates the Greens.