Morgan: 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour
The latest Morgan results are out. The two party preferred prediction, were an election held over the last two weekends, is that Labor would win 53 per cent of the national two party preferred vote. The Coalition would win 47 per cent.
If you factor in how people say they will allocate preferences, the result is even starker: 54 to 46 in Labor’s favour. However, it is always difficult to know what to do with such stark polls. As we have discussed before, Stanford University academic Simon Jackman identified a 4.7 per cent systemic pro-Labor bias in the Morgan polls in the four months prior to the 2004 Federal election. Still, I cannot imagine Howard is happy with this poll.
The national prediction for the primaries was 42 per cent for Labor, 39.5 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.
While I normally do graphs for this kind of thing, I am still wrestling with the Windows Vista beta and the Excel 2007 beta. I will ditch them on the weekend (both need more development). The old opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.