Oz Politics Blog

The latest Morgan poll is out. Its national prediction, were an election held over the last two weekends, was:

• Coalition primary vote: 42 per cent (unchanged since the last morgan poll)
• Labor primary vote: 41 per cent (up 0.5 per cent)
• Two party preferred vote: 48.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent in Labor’s favour (was 50-50)

There are some interesting features with this poll.

First, the Family First vote is the highest it has ever been — at 3 per cent. I think this is just a one off sampling issue; but it may explain the following observations.

Second, in the two party preferred vote, the Coalition did better according to how people said they would vote (49 per cent), compared with an attribution of the non-Coalition, non-Labor votes according to the preference distributions at the last election (48.5 per cent). Almost always, this relationship is the other way around (see following graph).

Third, Morgan is currently the most favourable of the three polls to the Coalition.

Finally, Looking across the Morgan polls since the last election, there appears to be a lot more volatility in the series since September last year. Does this suggest an edginess or flightiness among the punters? Perhaps there is a feeling of “a pox on both your houses”?

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.