Redistributions and the PM’s future
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has updated its timetable for the Queensland redistribution before the 2007 Federal election. The next key date is the publication of the proposed redistribution for comment on 23 June 2006. New South Wales is the other redistribution in train. The next key date for NSW is the publication of the proposed redistribution for comment on 30 June 2006. Queensland will gain one seat and New South Wales will lose one seat in the proposed redistributions.
There has been quite a bit of speculation that the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong would move to the west in the NSW redistribution (for example Antony Green at Crikey). If Bennelong picks up the Sydney suburbs of Ermington and Dundas Valley, it would make the seat even more marginal for the Liberals. Depending on the eastern suburbs the seat loses, there is a possibility it could become notionally Labor.
The flow-on speculation is that the Prime Minister will resign this year if the seat looks too marginal following the redistribution. Malcolm Mackerras has argued that if the Prime Minister decides to resign, he should resign his position as Prime Minister but not his seat in Parliament. Mackerras believes that Labor would win Bennelong in a by-election.
If John Howard stays on, Mumble Mackerras reasoned that John Watkins, who holds the NSW state seat of Ryde (within Bennelong), could go Federal; in which case he would have no trouble defeating Howard at the 2007 general election.