Conspiracy theories

Bryan · Saturday 6 May 2006 · 9:47 am

Occasionally I get conspiracy theory emails. Here is the latest.

I’m looking for some down-to-earth appraisal of what happened on February 8 of this year, when the federal government changed the Constitution by an act of parliament.

I was referred to a website with this explanation.

When Australia’s Constitution was written in the 1890s, it deliberately limited the federal government’s domestic military powers. The six colonies, giving up their own armies and navies at Federation, insisted that the new national defence forces must not be deployed against Australians, except in the case of a rebellion so vast that the police forces of a state faced being overwhelmed — and then only if the relevant state government appealed for help.

On February 8 2006, federal parliament overrode the Constitution to give John Howard (or any future prime minister) exclusive power to call out the defence forces against Australians on Australian soil. The Howard government claimed the risk of terrorism justified this new law, but the Bill doesn’t mention terrorists. Among the situations it allows the prime minister to quell with troops is any civil protest or industrial dispute that might threaten property.

Achieved by an amendment to Section 119 that directly contravenes Section 118, the Bill also makes soldiers immune to state law when called to turn their guns on fellow citizens, complicates the prosecution of any breaches of criminal law, and allows a defence of ‘following orders’. The Greens proposed an amendment to ensure that either house of parliament could immediately overrule any abuse of this power, but Labor voted with the Coalition to veto the amendment. The Defence Legislation Amendment (Aid to Civilian Authorities) Bill 2006 passed without publicity while the press and public were distracted by the antics of Tony Abbott and the AWB.

In terms of the alleged constitutional amendment, I gather the concern is that section 119 of the Constitution requires the agreement of the states before the armed forces are deployed in situations of domestic violence. Nonetheless, the new legislation enables the armed forces to be called out without the agreement of the states.

It is important to note that the new legislation primarily looks to sections 51(vi) and 61 as its source of Constitutional authority (and possibly sections 51(xxix), 51(xxxix) and 68). The majority on the Senate enquiry that considered the Bill before it was enacted by Parliament concluded, “that there is adequate constitutional support for the amendments proposed in the Bill.” The best Dr Bob Brown could assert in his dissenting report was that the Bill might exceed the Constitution.

However, it is not up to an individual Senator, the Prime Minister or the Parliament to decide whether legislation is constitutional. It is the High Court of Australia that gets to decide whether legislation is constitutional or not. If there is ever a call-out of the defence forces to address domestic violence without the agreement of the state government, I am sure the constitutionality of the provisions will be tested in the High Court.

Returning to the email I received, I suspect that the claims of a constitutional amendment by an act of parliament are little more than political theatre from those opposed to the legislation. A normal act of parliament cannot amend the Constitution. And if this act of parliament exceeds its constitutional authority, the High Court can strike it down as invalid legislation.

In short, nothing unusual happened on 8 February this year: the Australian Constitution was not amended by an act of parliament.

Morgan: 51.5 to 48.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · 8:11 am

The latest Morgan poll of 1985 voters over the weekends of 22-23 and 29-30 of April yielded a national two-party preferred prediction of 51.5 per cent for Labor and 48.5 per cent for the Coalition. This was a 2.5 percentage point improvement for the Coalition since the previous Morgan poll.

The key primary vote predictions were 40 per cent for the Coalition (up 1.5), 39 per cent for Labor (down 3) and 8.5 per cent for the Greens (down 1).

Aggregated monthly results. In terms of the aggregated monthly polling, March was a better month for Labor, with its primary and two-party predicted results improving.

Aggregated monthly polling

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Compulsory voting

Bryan · Thursday 4 May 2006 · 7:34 am

The Australian Electoral Commission has released an information paper on compulsory voting. It is an interesting overview of the history of compulsory voting in Australia, and the arguments for and against compulsory voting.

This may become a live issue. After each federal election, the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) conducts an inquiry into the election and considers public submissions. The 1996 JSCEM recommended that compulsory voting should be repealed. The 2004 JSCEM recommended that a full and separate inquiry be held into voluntary and compulsory voting. While the Prime Minister has said that the abolition of compulsory voting will not occur before the next federal lection there are a number of members of the government, including influential ministers such as Senator Nick Minchin, in favour of voluntary voting.

Newspoll: 51 to 49 in the Coalition’s favour

Bryan · Tuesday 2 May 2006 · 7:50 am

Today’s Newspoll has the Coalition in front on 51 per cent, compared with Labor on 49 per cent in two-party preferred terms.

Labor’s primary vote was down from 39 to 37 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote was up one to 42 per cent. The Greens were unchanged on 7 per cent.

Satisfaction with Howard was 47 per cent (steady) and dissatisfaction was 44 per cent (down one).

Satisfaction with Beazley was 31 per cent (up five) and dissatisfaction was 57 per cent (down four).

Fifty-six per cent preferred Howard as Prime Minister (steady), compared with the 25 per cent who preferred Beazley (up two).

Newspoll also asked questions on the Labor leadership. Both Gillard (32 per cent) and Rudd (28 per cent) were preferred over Beazley (24 per cent) as Labor’s leader. Perhaps more damning was the finding that Costello was preferred to Beazley, 44 per cent to 37 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Weekly betting market update

Bryan · Monday 1 May 2006 · 8:39 pm

There is little movement to report; and what movement there was, favoured the Coalition. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 57.4 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. It was 57.2 per cent last Monday.

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. It was $1.70 and $2.10 last Monday. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent
  • SportingBet is paying $1.62 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.6 per cent
  • SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.