Oz Politics Blog

The headline result from Morgan’s poll of 818 voters over the weekend of 13-14 May was a predicted national, two-party-preferred vote of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition.

Normally Morgan combines its two weekend polls into a single fortnightly prediction. This fortnight the two weekend polls were published separately, suggesting a significant post Budget turn-around for the Government. Morgan’s 6-7 May poll of 1024 voters saw a predicted national, two-party-preferred vote of 53.5 per cent for Labor and 46.5 per cent for the Coalition.

The turn around was even more marked in terms of the two-party preferred prediction based on how people said they would allocate their preferences. Over the week, the Coalition’s vote jumped from 44.5 per cent to 50 per cent. Labor suffered the corresponding 5.5 point decline. (For its headline predictions, Morgan uses the preference flows from the previous election to allocate preferences, rather than the stated preference intentions of its poll respondents).

According to the pollster:

“A pre-budget sharp decline in consumer confidence and L-NP vote after the RBA’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% was offset following the release of the budget that delivered tax cuts for all.

“An election would be too close to call if held now. What happens in the economy from now until the election will decide who wins the next Federal election.”

I am not a believer. A two and a half point (or 5.5 point) swing in a week is more likely to be stochastic noise than the measurement of anything meaningful. Budgets and individual Reserve Bank decisions are fairly arcane when it comes to the punters. A sex scandal and resignation might generate that sort of turn around in a week, but not fiscal policy and monetary policy.

Also probably attributable to the random perturbations of this series was the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election. Seventy per cent (up 9.5 points in a week) think the Coalition will win, 20 per cent (down 8 points in a week) think Labor will win and 10 per cent (down 1.5 points) can’t say.

Anyway, this latest Morgan poll might simply be a correction. Morgan has been travelling significantly to the left of Newspoll and ACNielsen in its prediction of Labor and the Coalition’s primary votes for the last 6 weeks or so. This latest result looks more in step with the other pollsters.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Last weekend’s Newspoll was reported in the Australian. The headline result was a national two party preferred vote of 50 per cent each for Labor and the Coalition, were an election held last weekend.

With a predicted primary vote of 39 per cent for Labor (below the 40 per cent benchmark), and 43 per cent for the Coalition (above the 42 per cent Plimsoll Line), I would tip a Coalition win.

The Government would be happy with the Budget polling.

The budget was well received, getting the highest rating for people saying it will make them “personally better off” and the second-highest rating as being “good for the economy” since 1990, when the Newspoll survey series began.

It is the third in a row where more people felt the budget was better for their family finances.

And it is the fifth straight where more people thought it was good for the economy.

And the Opposition would be happy to see a continued improvement in the attitudinal polling on Opposition Leader Beazley.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

In other news: Respect for Malcolm Turnbull edged up a few notches with his humorous email to a constituent, as reported in the Australian.

Gosh, Pam, you are in a bad mood this morning. Now, you are correct that the budget did not target childless, 58-year-old lesbian poets and science teachers; but you are better off nonetheless.

It seems like only yesterday we had our last Cabinet reshuffle. Yet today’s Age has speculation of another come mid-year. According to the Age, Amanda Vanstone will be replaced by Gary Hardgrave. Parliamentary secretaries Andrew Robb and Malcolm Turnbull are likely to be promoted. Kemp, is another on the way out.

This is not the first time the Age has claimed well-placed sources for a Vanstone departure in July. It did so in late March. Interestingly, last time we were tantalised with the prospect of a diplomatic posting for Vanstone, presumably China for the Sinophone. There was no such speculation this time.

The other rumour – that of the PM’s departure – had its source in this story by the right of centre columnist Piers Ackerman. Ackerman suggested the PM might retire gracefully at the year’s end setting the stage for Costello’s elevation. Normally I dismiss rumours of the PM’s imminent retirement. We have had such rumours on-and-off for the last five years. But with Ackerman as the source, given his close contacts with the PM, it could just be true.

My fellow blogger, the Poll Bludger, examined the early election aspect of Ackerman’s story – in March or April 2007 – and dismissed it. I agree with the Bludger: an election before August 2007 is unlikely.

According to the punters, the Government won Budget week. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 58.4 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. It was 57.4 per cent last Monday.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.55 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.30. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 59.7 per cent. It was 57.9 per cent last Monday.
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent. It was 56.3 per cent last Monday.
• SportingBet is paying $1.62 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

There was no movement to report. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 57.4 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.62 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.