Oz Politics Blog

The Thursday-to-Saturday ACNielsen poll of 1427 voters had Labor well ahead in its national two party preferred vote predication on 54 per cent. The Coalition was on 46 per cent. (Table here, and more analysis here.)

The primary vote prediction for Labor was 40 per cent. The primary vote prediction for the Coalition was 41 per cent. The Greens got 11 per cent.

To get its national two-party prediction, ACNielsen applied preferences according to the stated preferences of the non-Labor, non-Coalition voters polled. Typically, more people preference Labor in the opinion polls than do at the ballot box. At the last Federal election, 38.6 per cent of the non-Labor, non-Coalition voters gave their preference vote to the Coaltion. In the most recent ACNielsen poll, only 26.3 per cent preferenced the Coalition.

If we adjust the ACNielsen national two party preferred vote predication to reflect the preference splits at the last Federal election, we get Labor on 51.7 per cent and the Coalition on 48.3 per cent. I think this result is a more likely outcome from the indicated primary votes.

Of interest, Beazley’s approval rating has recovered some lost ground. It is up nine points to 39 per cent since the last ACNielsen poll. This is the highest since February. However, it is still less than his disapproval rating of 51 per cent.

Update: Excellent analysis on the reporting of today’s poll from Andrew Leigh.

Update #2: The poll had a series of questions on tax cuts versus social spending. These findings have been discussed by Guy at Polemica, Mark at the Purple Rodeo and Andrew at Catallaxy.

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