Oz Politics Blog

According to Newspoll, as reported in today’s Oz, the Coalition’s nationally predicted primary vote fell from 43 to 40 percent. Labor’s predication was unchanged on 39 per cent.

The resulting national, two-party preferred vote prediction, were an election held last weekend, was 52 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition.

On the attitudinals, both leaders saw a slight decline in satisfaction and a slight rise in dissatisfaction; however, these movements were not statistically significant. Howard’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction ratings are about equal. Beazley’s dissatisfaction rating is 1.6 times his satisfaction rating.

Howard remains the better Prime Minister on 55 per cent to Beazley’s 23 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The University of Western Australia has updated its database of elections, governments, parties and representation for Australian state and federal parliaments since 1890. You can search the database by elections (Commonwealth. state and territory; and by upper and lower house), governments (Commonwealth. state and territory; and first minister), and parties (name, date and type).

The Commonwealth Parliamentary Library has published an e-brief on elections around the world in 2006. The e-brief covers all elections held in the Pacific region, but coverage is selective for Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

The Thursday-to-Saturday ACNielsen poll of 1427 voters had Labor well ahead in its national two party preferred vote predication on 54 per cent. The Coalition was on 46 per cent. (Table here, and more analysis here.)

The primary vote prediction for Labor was 40 per cent. The primary vote prediction for the Coalition was 41 per cent. The Greens got 11 per cent.

To get its national two-party prediction, ACNielsen applied preferences according to the stated preferences of the non-Labor, non-Coalition voters polled. Typically, more people preference Labor in the opinion polls than do at the ballot box. At the last Federal election, 38.6 per cent of the non-Labor, non-Coalition voters gave their preference vote to the Coaltion. In the most recent ACNielsen poll, only 26.3 per cent preferenced the Coalition.

If we adjust the ACNielsen national two party preferred vote predication to reflect the preference splits at the last Federal election, we get Labor on 51.7 per cent and the Coalition on 48.3 per cent. I think this result is a more likely outcome from the indicated primary votes.

Of interest, Beazley’s approval rating has recovered some lost ground. It is up nine points to 39 per cent since the last ACNielsen poll. This is the highest since February. However, it is still less than his disapproval rating of 51 per cent.

Update: Excellent analysis on the reporting of today’s poll from Andrew Leigh.

Update #2: The poll had a series of questions on tax cuts versus social spending. These findings have been discussed by Guy at Polemica, Mark at the Purple Rodeo and Andrew at Catallaxy.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Centrebet eased a fraction in Labor’s direction over the past week. Otherwise, there was no movement to report. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 58.2 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. It was 58.4 per cent last Monday.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent. It was 59.7 per cent last Monday.
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent.
• SportingBet is paying $1.62 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The Parliamentary Library has released a 20 page Research Brief on the 18 March 2006 state elections in Tasmania and South Australia.

Given the thumping Labor victories, the Research Brief poses an interesting question. “One might wonder just what, if anything, the two state Liberal divisions might have done that might have produced a different election outcome.”