Oz Politics Blog

Did you know that the Toowoomba City Council proposes to reclaim drinking water from the city’s sewage?

Do you care?

Well someone thinks you do. Today I received an email recommending that the Water Futures blog, on Toowoomba’s recycled sewage water, should be included in my list of blog feeds.

Please tell me if you want it added. And if so, tell me which blog feed I should drop.

Update: If you want an alternative blog to the Water Futures blog, you could try NO to putting POO in TOOwoomba’s Water Supply for Drinking or Toowoomba Recycled Water Debating the issue …

An interesting piece by Andrew Norton at Catallaxy on the accuracy of opinion polls.

Was yesterday’s by-election for the Queensland state seat of Gaven (map and statistical profile) a harbinger of things to come?

At the close of counting last night, Labor had suffered an eight percentage point swing against it in the two-party preferred vote. The notional two-party preferred result at the end of last night was 52.3 per cent for the Nationals and 47.7 per cent for Labor. While the count was incomplete, there can be little doubt that Labor lost the seat, and the National’s gained it. (For more information, check out the Poll Bludger).

The next Queensland state election must be held before 5 May 2007. Unlike some states and territories, Queensland does not have fixed election dates, so the election could be later in 2006 or early 2007, more likely the latter in my assessment. An eight per cent swing across the state could well see the Beattie Labor government fall. Of the 63 seats Labor won in the 2004 election, it gained 20 seats with less than an eight per cent TPP margin. If Labor were left with 43 seats after the next election, it would be just short of a majority in a house of 89 seats.

At the Federal level, there is a tradition of bad by-election results being an ill portent for the government at the next election. In June 1975, the Bass election saw an almost 14 per cent swing against the Whitlam government. Whitlam lost the subsequent December 1975 election in a landslide. The March 1995 by-election in the seat of Canberra saw a more that 16 per cent swing against the Keating government. Keating lost the 1996 election to Howard in another landslide.

But a bad by-election result does not always signal a change of government at the next general election. Labor won the Ryan by-election from the Liberals in March 2001 with a 9.7 per cent swing. However, at the November 2001 election the Coalition retained government (and won back Ryan).

By-elections in government-held seats are magnets for the protest vote. They allow voters to send a message to the government of the day without risking a change of government. The average by-election swing is three to five per cent. If we assume that (say) four of the eight per cent swing against Labor in the Gaven by-election was a protest vote, then Labor is on much safer ground. It would only lose 8 of its 63 seats were there a uniform 4 per cent swing against the government at the next general election.

Notwithstanding yesterday’s by-election, my guess is that Beattie would win the next general election. Like Carr and Howard, he is hard working, uses the media, and he usually manages the dangers of hubris and arrogance. For as long as the economy holds, this should be enough to get him over the line.

However, I recognise the opinion polls are less sanguine. The most recent Newspoll results are as follows.