Oz Politics Blog

Today’s ACNielsen poll results (here), predicted a national two-party preferred vote of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition.

However, I have my doubts with this headline result. With primary vote polling of 43 per cent for the Coalition and 38 per cent for Labor, I would comfortably predict a Coalition majority. Unlike Morgan and Newspoll, ACNielsen allocates preferences on the basis of poll questions. If we allocate preferences the way they were allocated at the last election, the Coalition comes out marginally ahead.

There is a significant divergence between the pollsters. The most recent results range from Labor on 54 per cent at Morgan, through 52 per cent at Newspoll, to 51 per cent at ACNielsen. This divergence has been a feature of the polling for a month now.

While I cannot be sure what is causing it, I suspect there is an element of voters saying, ‘a pox on both your houses’. The Coalition is clearly taking a hit on industrial relations and its failure to connect the dots after 21 cables alerting them to corruption within the Australian Wheat Board. For Labor, Beazley does not connect and excite as well as he used to. Labor is not capitalising on the Government’s troubles.

Supporting my pox-on-both-your-houses hypothesis is the decline in the approval rating and the increase in the disapproval rating of both leaders.

Another explanation for the divergence between the pollsters is school holidays, and the Easter and ANZAC weekends affecting the reliability of the polling. With more people travelling, the samples are likely to be a little skewed.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

On the betting markets: there has been no movement over the last week.