Oz Politics Blog

Morgan has released its latest poll results, which predict a landslide election win for Labor. If an election was held over the past fortnight, Labor would have got 54 per cent of the national, two-party preferred vote, to the Coalition’s 46 per cent. This is the same headline result as the previous Morgan poll.

According to the pollster:

The Coalition Government received their lowest level of primary support (38.5%) since December last year. Primary support for the Government fell 0.5% to 38.5%, while support for the ALP dropped 1.5% to 42%.

Significantly, 7% fewer people think the Government will win the next election compared with a month ago (62% cf 69%).

Morgan has been probing the AWB scandal …

A majority of Australians (54%) think Prime Minister John Howard did not act ethically over AWB Ltd.’s wheat to Iraq deals a special telephone Morgan Poll finds. Similar proportions of Australians aged 14 and over think Foreign Minister Alexander Downer (56%) and Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Minister Mark Vaile (55%) did not act ethically. This special telephone Morgan Poll was

conducted on April 19/20 in the week following the appearance of Mr Howard, Mr Downer and Mr Vaile at the Cole Royal Commission into AWB Ltd.’s grain dealings with Iraq.

Now four-in-five (80% up 3% since late February) Australians are aware of the Royal Commission and only 20% (down 3%) are unaware of the Royal Commission. When it comes to perceptions of the Federal Government as a whole 63% (up 6% from 57%) think it acted ethically on the issue while 18% (up 1%) think it did not act ethically.

Almost two-thirds (65% up 6%) of Australians think AWB Ltd. did not act ethically in their negotiations to sell wheat to Iraq, 12% (unchanged) think it acted ethically and 23% (down 6%) couldn’t say.

Of those Australians who are aware of the Royal Commission, 58% think Mr Howard did not act ethically, 63% think Mr Downer did not act ethically and 63% think Mr Vaile did not act ethically. Almost three-quarters (74%) of Australians who had heard of the Royal Commission think AWB acted unethically and 68% think the Federal Government acted unethically.

And the war in Iraq …

Fifty-nine per cent of Australians (up 8% since March 2005 and 13% since March 2004) think Australia should not have a military presence in Iraq a special telephone Morgan Poll finds. Only 35% (down 10%) of Australians aged 14 and over think Australia should have a military presence and 6% (up 2%) couldn’t say. Support for an Australian military presence has never been lower since the Morgan Poll first asked Australians in March 2004.

Almost two-thirds of Australians (63%) think the Australian Government should bring Australian forces back from Iraq, up 10% since March 2005. Only 32% (down 12%) think we should continue to fight and 5% (up 2%) couldn’t say. Supporters of the Coalition Government are 21% more likely than Labor supporters to think Australia should have a military presence in Iraq (48% cf 27%) and 19% more likely to think that Australian troops should continue to fight in the war torn nation (45% cf 26%).

The results of this latest Morgan Poll contrast strongly with the results of two Morgan Polls concerning the Vietnam War conducted in 1965. In September 1965, the majority of Australians (56%) said they believed Australia should continue to fight in Vietnam, while 28% thought the Government should withdraw Australian troops (16% couldn’t say).

And global warming …

An overwhelming majority of Australians (71% up 4% from 67% in November 2005) think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late to address the consequences of global warming, a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. Now 12% of Australians aged 14 and over (down 1% since November 2005), think that concerns are exaggerated when it comes to global warming, however 14% (down 1%) think it is already too late, while 3% (down 2%) can’t say.

Women are more concerned about the effects of global warming than men: 74% of women think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late, compared with only 67% of men. Conversely men (16%) are more likely than women (9%) to believe that concerns about global warming are exaggerated. Almost nine-in-ten (87%) Australians aged 14-17 believe that if we don’t act now on global warming it will be too late, however only 64% of those aged 18-24 think that if we don’t act now it will be too late.

Greens supporters (79%) are most likely to think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late, followed by Liberal-National Party supporters (71%) and supporters of Independent candidates and other parties (70%). ALP supporters (19%) are more likely to believe that it is already too late than supporters of any other political party, while supporters of Independent candidates and other parties (21%), followed by supporters of the L-NP (18%) are more likely to believe that concerns are exaggerated.

Analysis on a State-by-State basis shows Tasmanian residents are the least likely to think concerns are exaggerated (8%) and the most likely to think that it is already too late (23%). Those living in South Australia and the Northern Territory (77%) closely followed by those living in NSW (76%) are the most likely to think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.