Oz Politics Blog

Morgan has released its latest poll results, which predict a landslide election win for Labor. If an election was held over the past fortnight, Labor would have got 54 per cent of the national, two-party preferred vote, to the Coalition’s 46 per cent.

A fortnight ago I speculated that Newspoll might have misread the tealeaves when it lurched to the left. Now with Morgan following, I am less sure. Perhaps there has been a seismic shift in national voting intentions.

If so, you would have to pin it on industrial relations, the implementation of workchoices, and the Cowra abattoir workers who were sacked and then offered their jobs on a lower salary. My father once told me that there is nothing as sensitive as the hip pocket nerve when it comes to voting intention.

Morgan has been polling on the performance of Howard and Beazley.

More than twice as many Australian voters think John Howard (61%) would make a better Prime Minister than Kim Beazley (26%) a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. Yet, only 49% of voters approved of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister, 44% of voters disapproved of the way My Howard was handling his job and 7% couldn’t say. This is the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating for Mr Howard since August 2004 —before the last Federal election.

My Beazley’s approval rating of 29% is the lowest approval rating of an Opposition Leader since Simon Crean was Leader of the Opposition - 26% in May and June 2003 and only the second lowest of any Labor Opposition Leader. More than twice as many voters disapprove (62%) of Mr Beazley’s performance as Opposition Leader than approve of it (29%) while 9% couldn’t say.

It has been polling on the preferred leaders for Liberal and Labor.

Labor front-bencher Julia Gillard is preferred to lead the Labor Party by 31% of voters, more than the 20% of voters who prefer current leader Kim Beazley while front-bencher Kevin Rudd has the same level of support amongst voters (20%) as the embattled leader, a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. When Mr Beazley is removed as a candidate for the leadership support for Ms Gillard rises 4% to 35% of all voters, 11% more than support for Mr Rudd 24% (also up 4%).

Of particular importance are the views of Labor voters: 29% prefer Julia Gillard to lead Labor followed by Kevin Rudd on 24% and Kim Beazley third on 20%. When Kim Beazley is not considered as a candidate Julia Gillard’s support increases 5% to 34% while Support for Kevin Rudd also increases 5% to 29%.

Prime Minister John Howard is the preferred Coalition Leader for 36% of voters, followed by Treasurer Peter Costello (17%), Parliamentary Secretary Malcolm Turnbull (10%) and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer (9%). When Mr Howard is removed from consideration as Coalition Leader Peter Costello’s support increases 12% to 29%, Alexander Downer’s support increases 6% to 15% and Malcolm Turnbull’s support increases 2% to 12%.

Importantly 59% of Coalition voters prefer John Howard as Prime Minister, 17% prefer Costello, 8% Downer and 6% Tony Abbott. When John Howard is not considered as a candidate, support for Peter Costello rises 20% to 37%, support for Alexander Downer increases 12% to 20% and support for Tony Abbott increases 7% to 13%.

Update: And on IR reforms.

A majority of Australians (57%) disagree with the Federal Government’s Industrial Relations reforms introduced last week, 20% agree and 23% couldn’t say a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. This is an increase of 8% from the 49% of Australians who disagreed in October 2005 when the reforms were proposed. Those who agree with the reforms are up 3% to 20% and those who couldn’t say or hadn’t heard of the reforms in October 2005 are down 11% from 34%.

A similar majority (52%) think the reforms will be a bad thing for Australia up 2% on October 2005 (50%), 27% think they will be a good thing down 2% (from 27%) and 21% (unchanged) couldn’t say. Only 13% of Australians think they will be better off under the reforms, this is up 3% on October 2005 (10%), a substantial 49% think they will not be better off (up 10 % from 39%) and 38% couldn’t say (up 7% from 31%).

Importantly women are more concerned about the reforms than men: more women than men think the reforms will be a bad thing for Australia (57% cf. 47%) and disagree with the reforms (59% cf. 56%). Men are more likely to think the reforms will be a good thing for Australia (33% cf 21%), to agree with the reforms (22% cf. 17%) and to think they will be better off (14% cf 11%).

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.