Oz Politics Blog

Today’s ACNielsen poll results (here), predicted a national two-party preferred vote of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition.

However, I have my doubts with this headline result. With primary vote polling of 43 per cent for the Coalition and 38 per cent for Labor, I would comfortably predict a Coalition majority. Unlike Morgan and Newspoll, ACNielsen allocates preferences on the basis of poll questions. If we allocate preferences the way they were allocated at the last election, the Coalition comes out marginally ahead.

There is a significant divergence between the pollsters. The most recent results range from Labor on 54 per cent at Morgan, through 52 per cent at Newspoll, to 51 per cent at ACNielsen. This divergence has been a feature of the polling for a month now.

While I cannot be sure what is causing it, I suspect there is an element of voters saying, ‘a pox on both your houses’. The Coalition is clearly taking a hit on industrial relations and its failure to connect the dots after 21 cables alerting them to corruption within the Australian Wheat Board. For Labor, Beazley does not connect and excite as well as he used to. Labor is not capitalising on the Government’s troubles.

Supporting my pox-on-both-your-houses hypothesis is the decline in the approval rating and the increase in the disapproval rating of both leaders.

Another explanation for the divergence between the pollsters is school holidays, and the Easter and ANZAC weekends affecting the reliability of the polling. With more people travelling, the samples are likely to be a little skewed.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

On the betting markets: there has been no movement over the last week.

To help with the next redevelopment of the Australian Politics Test, I have added a page with an analysis of the answers to individual questions by self-reported party preference. Because some of the questions have changed over time, the analysis only considers the 1000 most recent responses from people living in Australia of voting age.

Take a look. There are some unexpected surprises.

• Question 1 — All third world debt should be cancelled — while the left splits roughly 80-20 in favour as I expected them to, the right only splits roughly 60-40 against
• Question 2 — There is too much nudity and explicit sexual material on television — another question where the left split as I expected them to, but the right less so
• Question 4 — Government should increase taxes so that it can do more for its citizens — Here the left had a higher disagreement (roughly 60-40) than I expected
• Question 5 — Abortion is murder — The Liberal party split against (66-34) was higher than I had expected
• Question 6 — People who enter Australia illegally and who claim to be a refugee should be detained for a time while their claims are assessed — The Greens only managed a disagreement of 65-35. I expected higher
• Question 7 — Governments should do more to help the small business sector — The 20-80 support split pretty well across the board, including from the Greens was unexpected — this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference
• Question 8 — The government should pay people to care for their children and elderly parents — the low level of disagreement (60-40) from the Liberals surprised me — it looks like middle class welfare is a vote winner
• Question 10 — Governments should identify and regulate things that might be harmful to people — Another question where the splits are roughly the same across the party spectrum (40-60) — this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference
• Question 11 — The government should do more to protect the rights of workers — Another surprise with a majority of Liberals supporting the statement (and it appears contradictory to the results for Question 3, ‘Employers need a lot of flexibility when it comes to hiring and firing staff’, which got strong support from the Liberals)
• Question 17 — For a political party, refining its policy position on the basis of opinion polls and talk-back-radio is a good thing — splits ranged from 60-40 against to 50-50 — this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference
• Question 24 — The government should set quotas and fine large companies that do not employ a sufficient proportion of people with a disability or women in senior management positions — did not get the level of support from the left I was anticipating (only the Greens split for at 49-51)
• Question 25 — As a general principle, school teachers should be paid bonuses and promoted on the basis of their students’ performance — with the way the Teachers’ Union has carried on I had expected higher disagreement from the left (only 60-40) — I also expected higher agreement from the right (rather than 50-50) — this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference
• Question 26 — Protecting the environment is more important than providing social welfare services to people in need — I did not expect Green voters to disagree with this proposition (roughly 60-40) — this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference
• Question 32 — The Medicare scheme should be restricted to people on low incomes — With all parties opposed this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference
• Question 35 — The government should establish a national filtering scheme to protect children from pornography on the Internet — I did not expect Labor to split in favour 40-60
• Question 37 — Banks should be required to provide customers with basic fee-free accounts – I did not expect the Liberals to split in favour 40-60
• Question 39 — Voting at elections should be compulsory — with broad cross party support this question may need to go as it does not help discriminate political preference

Update 25 April 2006: The questions have been tweaked and re-scored. I will review the test again at 12,000 hits.

We are approaching a milestone. The Australian Politics Test has been taken almost 10,000 times. To commemorate this occasion, Ray Hentzschel sent me some fascinating graphs of his analysis of these statistics.

Ray has looked at the left-versus-right leanings of the people who have taken the test according to their self-reported party preference. He has plotted the results, and a polynomial regression line for each of the economic, social and political values dimension of the test. However, before looking at the graphs, I will quickly recap the three dimensions.

The economic policy dimension reports the extent to which respondents think the state should be regulating the economic aspects of our lives. A negative score means you believe the state should, on more issues than not, intervene in the economic lives of its citizens. A positive score means you believe the state should be less interventionist.

The social policy dimension reports the extent to which respondents think the state should be supporting its citizens as well as protecting its citizens from making decisions that could be harmful (in social policy areas other than those covered by the traditional values dimension below). A negative score means you believe the state should, on more issues than not, intervene in the social lives of its citizens as a force for good. A positive score means you believe we are responsible enough to live and run our own lives free from excessive government intervention.

The traditional values dimension reports the extent to which you think the state should act to maintain conservative moral standards (for example in respect of abortion, divorce and drug use). A negative score means you believe the state should not overly intervene in the moral lives of its citizens. A positive score indicates you believe the state should intervene on more of these issues than not. A strongly positive score is consistent with the position adopted by the ‘Christian Right’ in Australia.

A number of points of interest emerge from these graphs.

• Most surprisingly for me, the self-reported One Nation voters were not all that far to the right in their answers to the questions - especially on economic policy where they were typically left of centre
• Next most surprising, Liberal Party voters tend to be to the left of centre when it comes to traditional values
• Family First voters tend to be middle of the road on social and economic policy, and clearly to the left of the Liberal and National Parties on these issues
• Family First and National voters tend to have similar right of centre views on traditional values
• Liberal voters tend to be slightly more right wing on economic policy issues, whereas National voters tend to be slightly more right wing on social policy issues
• There is not a lot of difference in the profiles of Democrats and Labor voters
• Green voters are much more likely than Democrat or Labor voters to hold far-left views on economic and social policy, and traditional values

I am working on a second beta test which I will release shortly. These graphs will help me refine the test.

In case you are wondering, the 100 most recent test results can be seen here.

Morgan has released its latest poll results, which predict a landslide election win for Labor. If an election was held over the past fortnight, Labor would have got 54 per cent of the national, two-party preferred vote, to the Coalition’s 46 per cent. This is the same headline result as the previous Morgan poll.

According to the pollster:

The Coalition Government received their lowest level of primary support (38.5%) since December last year. Primary support for the Government fell 0.5% to 38.5%, while support for the ALP dropped 1.5% to 42%.

Significantly, 7% fewer people think the Government will win the next election compared with a month ago (62% cf 69%).

Morgan has been probing the AWB scandal …

A majority of Australians (54%) think Prime Minister John Howard did not act ethically over AWB Ltd.’s wheat to Iraq deals a special telephone Morgan Poll finds. Similar proportions of Australians aged 14 and over think Foreign Minister Alexander Downer (56%) and Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Minister Mark Vaile (55%) did not act ethically. This special telephone Morgan Poll was

conducted on April 19/20 in the week following the appearance of Mr Howard, Mr Downer and Mr Vaile at the Cole Royal Commission into AWB Ltd.’s grain dealings with Iraq.

Now four-in-five (80% up 3% since late February) Australians are aware of the Royal Commission and only 20% (down 3%) are unaware of the Royal Commission. When it comes to perceptions of the Federal Government as a whole 63% (up 6% from 57%) think it acted ethically on the issue while 18% (up 1%) think it did not act ethically.

Almost two-thirds (65% up 6%) of Australians think AWB Ltd. did not act ethically in their negotiations to sell wheat to Iraq, 12% (unchanged) think it acted ethically and 23% (down 6%) couldn’t say.

Of those Australians who are aware of the Royal Commission, 58% think Mr Howard did not act ethically, 63% think Mr Downer did not act ethically and 63% think Mr Vaile did not act ethically. Almost three-quarters (74%) of Australians who had heard of the Royal Commission think AWB acted unethically and 68% think the Federal Government acted unethically.

And the war in Iraq …

Fifty-nine per cent of Australians (up 8% since March 2005 and 13% since March 2004) think Australia should not have a military presence in Iraq a special telephone Morgan Poll finds. Only 35% (down 10%) of Australians aged 14 and over think Australia should have a military presence and 6% (up 2%) couldn’t say. Support for an Australian military presence has never been lower since the Morgan Poll first asked Australians in March 2004.

Almost two-thirds of Australians (63%) think the Australian Government should bring Australian forces back from Iraq, up 10% since March 2005. Only 32% (down 12%) think we should continue to fight and 5% (up 2%) couldn’t say. Supporters of the Coalition Government are 21% more likely than Labor supporters to think Australia should have a military presence in Iraq (48% cf 27%) and 19% more likely to think that Australian troops should continue to fight in the war torn nation (45% cf 26%).

The results of this latest Morgan Poll contrast strongly with the results of two Morgan Polls concerning the Vietnam War conducted in 1965. In September 1965, the majority of Australians (56%) said they believed Australia should continue to fight in Vietnam, while 28% thought the Government should withdraw Australian troops (16% couldn’t say).

And global warming …

An overwhelming majority of Australians (71% up 4% from 67% in November 2005) think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late to address the consequences of global warming, a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. Now 12% of Australians aged 14 and over (down 1% since November 2005), think that concerns are exaggerated when it comes to global warming, however 14% (down 1%) think it is already too late, while 3% (down 2%) can’t say.

Women are more concerned about the effects of global warming than men: 74% of women think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late, compared with only 67% of men. Conversely men (16%) are more likely than women (9%) to believe that concerns about global warming are exaggerated. Almost nine-in-ten (87%) Australians aged 14-17 believe that if we don’t act now on global warming it will be too late, however only 64% of those aged 18-24 think that if we don’t act now it will be too late.

Greens supporters (79%) are most likely to think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late, followed by Liberal-National Party supporters (71%) and supporters of Independent candidates and other parties (70%). ALP supporters (19%) are more likely to believe that it is already too late than supporters of any other political party, while supporters of Independent candidates and other parties (21%), followed by supporters of the L-NP (18%) are more likely to believe that concerns are exaggerated.

Analysis on a State-by-State basis shows Tasmanian residents are the least likely to think concerns are exaggerated (8%) and the most likely to think that it is already too late (23%). Those living in South Australia and the Northern Territory (77%) closely followed by those living in NSW (76%) are the most likely to think that if we don’t act now, it will be too late.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Morgan has released three polls on party leadership in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.

• 51% of NSW voters prefer Morris Iemma to Peter Debnam (23%) as Premier. 54% approve of the way Mr Iemma is handling his job as Premier, 31% disapprove and 15% couldn’t say. Only slightly more voters approve (36%) than disapprove (35%) of the way Mr Debnam is handling his job.
• 67% Victorians prefer Steve Bracks to Robert Doyle (18%) as Premier. A majority of Victorians (56%) approve of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier, 34% disapprove and 10% couldn’t say. Only 30% of voters approve of the way Mr Doyle is handling his job as Opposition Leader, while 51% disapprove and 19% couldn’t say.
• 70% of Queenslanders prefer Peter Beattie to Lawrence Springborg (20%) as Premier. 62% of voters approve of the way Mr Beattie is handling his job as Premier, 32% disapprove while 6% couldn’t say. 42% approve of the way Mr Springborg is handling his job as Opposition Leader, 37% disapprove and 21% couldn’t say.

Personally, I would exercise some caution with these results. They are based on very small samples. For NSW the sample size was 409 electors. For Victoria it was 321 electors. And for Queensland it was 235 electors.